Summary President Trump’s administration promises to produce pro-crypto regulatory frameworks and guidelines from both the SEC and the new Bitcoin and Crypto Presidential Advisory Council. Repealing SAB 121 and ending Operation Choke Point 2.0 will significantly reduce regulatory burdens and promote crypto adoption by traditional finance institutions. Trump’s support for favorable Bitcoin taxation and creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve could transform the US into a global crypto leader. Given the positive policy shifts, I put a strong buy rating on Bitcoin, anticipating significant growth as regulatory headwinds turn into tailwinds. Introduction The Biden administration was nothing short of hostile towards Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and cryptocurrencies over the past 4 years. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aggressively pursued widespread enforcement actions against exchanges and projects, including Coinbase, Binance, Kraken, Ripple, and in what seemed like a publicity stunt, Kim Kardashian . Despite industry pleas, the SEC refused to clarify any rules of engagement for crypto under Chairman Gary Gensler. The administration used direct power and shadow regulation in the attempt to obstruct and restrain growth in the US. The FDIC's alleged "Operation Choke Point 2.0" shut crypto companies out of banking services. The SEC also published SAB 121 as a way of loading more regulatory burden on banks to discourage crypto adoption by traditional finance (TradFi). When Congress wanted to correct this, Biden actually vetoed the bill to overturn SAB 121. Finally, the former administration generally sought to extend surveillance and control over financial transactions, and used the pretext of national security and anti-crypto rhetoric about alleged criminal use to push for more Orwellian oversight of digital assets. In contrast, Donald Trump made many positive promises and public statements related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies during his campaign. Certainly, the support of a sitting president and a crypto-friendly administration could make an enormous amount of difference for the industry. But a pledge isn't worth anything if not fulfilled. In this article, I'll review each one of Trump's statements and evaluate them for viability (EASY, MEDIUM, HARD) and impact on the Bitcoin price (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH). The Trump Promises 1. Fire Gary Gensler on "Day One" Viability: DONE Impact: HIGH Attending the Bitcoin Conference in July, Trump promised removing US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler "on day one" and appointing a "Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council." "The moment I'm sworn in, the persecution stops, and the weaponization ends against your industry," said Trump. "I will appoint a new SEC chairman who believes that America should build the future, not block the future. Although there was some debate about whether firing the SEC chair was legally possible under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the situation resolved itself when Gensler himself resigned in November 2024. The impact of clear and consistent regulation SEC regulation alone is massive for Bitcoin and the entire industry. We aren't there yet, but that goal will promote market efficiency and confidence in these emerging financial technologies. It will also remove the primary reason many firms (including Ripple) were contemplating leaving the US: to avoid the harsh regulatory environment. 2. Advocate Pro-Crypto Policies via the SEC and "Bitcoin and Crypto Presidential Advisory Council" Viability: EASY Impact: HIGH Trump has promised to make the US a "bitcoin superpower" and "crypto capital of the planet." He's put forth two major initiatives to make that happen. The SEC has announced that acting Chair Mark Uyeda has launched a "crypto task force" aimed at "developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets." ...According to the SEC announcement, the panel's task will be to develop a clear set of rules while also addressing issues regarding registration of coins. About the Bitcoin and Presidential Advisory Council: President Trump is expected to sign executive orders to elevate crypto to a national policy priority and form a Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets, or Crypto Council. The prospective Crypto Council is expected to be made up of 24 individuals, including private sector founders and CEOs. Furthermore, an executive order may contain a directive for all government agencies to review policies on digital assets and potentially pause litigation involving crypto companies. The ultimate goal here is to foster a favorable environment for crypto related companies, allowing innovative companies to flourish in the US rather than forced overseas. The SEC initiative is already in motion, and the Council could be initiated with a simple executive order. These efforts are expected to produce a clear and comprehensive framework for crypto growth. 3. Ending "Operation Choke Point 2.0" Viability: MEDIUM Impact: MEDIUM The original Operation Choke Point operation was a Department of Justice initiative under the Obama administration which investigated US banks and pressured them to cease services to legal businesses such as firearm dealers and payday lenders because of a high risk for fraud or money laundering. The operation finally ended in 2017 after multiple lawsuits against the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC promised to cease issuing "informal" and "unwritten suggestions" to banks. But sadly, the cycle was repeated with the launch of Choke Point 2.0, this time against crypto related companies. Evidence is still mounting, but reports of firms and individuals being debanked are widespread. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen detailed his experience on a podcast and introduced many to the concept of debanking. In essence, this is when bank accounts get closed by the bank rather than the customer. Within his own VC firm alone, Andreessen said 30 tech founders have been debanked. His claims prompted prominent crypto industry figures including David Marcus, Jesse Powell, Sam Kazemian, and Tyler Winklevoss to share their own experiences with debanking online. Sid Kalla, cofounder of Roll Labs, posted a cancellation notice from Chase on X, claiming the bank ended a seven-year relationship with no explanation. The loss left his company without a checking account for weeks, delaying paychecks for 12 employees. Investigations are still pending, but it appears the FDIC was again disrupting the operations of legal businesses by pressuring banks to close accounts. During the first Trump administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ((OCC)) advocated a rule that would have prevented banks from denying access to large classes of people. The OCC then suspended that Fair Access Rule from moving forward right after Biden took office. Under Trump, we can expect the OCC to return to that measure once more. Coinbase filed a lawsuit against the FDIC, claiming it "pressured financial institutions to cut off the industry from the banking system." Similar to the first operation, lawsuits will also help end Choke Point 2.0. 4. Repeal SAB 121 Viability: EASY Impact: HIGH Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 was released by the Security and Exchange Commission in April of 2022 under the Biden administration. This was a diabolical requirement for institutions desiring to hold crypto to record them as liabilities on their balance sheets. It significantly increased the capital requirements for TradFi institutions to the point it made crypto custody either prohibitively expensive or totally unfeasible. SAB 121 was above and beyond the standard these same organizations need for other asset classes, once again showing the former administration's intense bias against crypto. This should be easy to repeal with an executive order, but could possibly be bundled together with other actions. With SAB 121 in the rearview mirror, we should see an immediate blossoming of TradFi offerings for crypto, which will further legitimize the industry and make services available to nearly every person. 5. Pardon for Ross Ulbricht Viability: DONE Impact: LOW Breaking Points Journalist Saagar Enjeti has said , I'm no fan of the silk road but the way the FBI set up Ross Ulbricht for life is still one of the most insane cases I've ever read about Ross Ulbricht founded the dark website the Silk Road, which allowed anyone to market just about anything using Bitcoin as payment. He was convicted of multiple felonies and given a life sentence without the possibility of parole, a sentence many found incredibly excessive. Freeing Ulbricht has been a topic close to the hearts of both Bitcoiners and Libertarians. The documentary "Deep Web" by Alex Winter tells the story of the Silk Road and is a critical exploration of the FBI's actions concerning the trial of Ross Ulbricht; well worth seeing. On January 21, 2025 President Trump granted a full and unconditional pardon to Ross Ulbricht. Although there will be no discernible impact on Bitcoin's price from Ross' pardon, the fact that Trump followed through inspired gratitude from the communities supporting Ross and instills confidence for continued action. 6. Support for Bitcoin Mining Viability: MEDIUM Impact: LOW Trump expressed a desire for all remaining Bitcoin to be "made in the USA" Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden's hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!! It will help us be ENERGY DOMINANT Trump previously met with executives from major Bitcoin mining companies, according to CleanSpark Executive Chairman Matthew Schultz. Practically speaking, attempting to centralize all future Bitcoin mining in the US doesn't really make sense. Bitcoin is global and decentralized and will continue to be that way. However, contrary to the Biden administration, which attacked Bitcoin mining because of environmental concerns, Trump could enable the mining industry with favorable regulatory changes, energy policies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investments. This could boost the Bitcoin mining stocks, but won't do much for the BTC price. 7. Favorable Taxation for Bitcoin Viability: HARD Impact: HIGH Trump has stated Bitcoin should be tax-free for transactions, specifically calling out the unfairness of taxing small purchases like buying coffee with Bitcoin. He believes it should be treated as money and not subjected to capital gains tax for small transactions. But candidate Trump also made some sweeping statements regarding his intention to eliminate capital gains taxes on Bitcoin and those cryptocurrencies originating in the US. Former President Donald Trump's administration could drastically change the crypto landscape with a proposed policy to eliminate capital gains taxes on U.S.-issued cryptocurrencies. According to sources close to the transition team, the proposal would apply to tokens created by U.S. companies, potentially turning the country into a tax-free crypto haven. This policy could push investors to pivot from traditional markets to crypto, especially as the elimination of taxes makes profits on assets like Bitcoin, Cardano, and Solana even more attractive. Although no capital gains tax on Bitcoin and the other coins would be an absolute game changer, it's difficult for me to believe Trump will have the support he needs to modify the tax code in this fashion. Time will tell. 8. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Viability: HARD Impact: HIGH Also at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference last year, Trump outlined plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Trump announced that if elected, he would create a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US. "It will be the policy of my administration to keep 100 percent of all bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires in the future … as a core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile," he said. Per Arkham , a crypto intelligence platform, the US was holding as much as 212,000 BTC last year worth approximately $22 billion based on the current prices. There were fears that the Biden administration would sell the BTC right before Trump came into office, but that hasn't been confirmed. Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming has proposed a bill called the BITCOIN Act which is a huge step beyond simply holding the Bitcoin currently possessed. It would Establish a decentralized network of secure Bitcoin vaults operated by the United States Department of Treasury with statutory requirements ensuring the highest level of physical and cybersecurity for the nation's Bitcoin holdings. Implement a 1-million-unit Bitcoin purchase program over a set period of time to acquire a total stake of approximately 5% of total Bitcoin supply, mirroring the size and scope of gold reserves held by the United States. Be paid for by diversifying existing funds within the Federal Reserve System and Treasury Department. Affirm self-custody rights of private Bitcoin holders and emphasize that the strategic Bitcoin reserve shall not infringe upon individual financial freedoms. Holding on to the US's existing BTC is easy, but the BITCOIN Act may be very hard. It's unknown how much support Senator Lummis has for her bill, but if passed, the potential benefits are many. It would signal clear US global leadership in the next phase of financial technology and further bolster market confidence in Bitcoin. The reserve could also be perceived as backing for the US dollar, and a hedge against inflation, thus strengthening USD credibility. Finally, with significant appreciation, it could help offset the national debt (Lummis projects possibly cutting in the debt in half by 2045). Conclusion There's a lot to be done, but President Trump has already made progress to transform the US government into a Bitcoin friendly power. This review found two commitments already completed and two more that should be quick and easy to implement. Given President Trump's demonstrated energy and follow through, I'll expect appropriate action on all the above pending promises. I plan to track all items and publish progress updates. Therefore, I rate Bitcoin a strong buy. All the Biden induced headwinds are now turning into Trump tailwinds. Let's see how far Bitcoin can fly.
