Bitcoin Losses Shift to Older Cohorts, Indicating Broadening Capitulation

The past few months have seen Bitcoin’s price shifts trigger a really big shift in the pattern of realized losses that affect us all. And what is that pattern? We now have a pretty solid transition from younger to older coins when it comes to shelling out and accepting realized losses. You used to be able to count on the fact that if someone was going to go out and realize a loss on their Bitcoin, it was likely going to be someone who had just acquired it. But not anymore. Seems like a lot more people are giving up. So, who exactly is giving up? Our main suspects are people who have held their coins for three to six months. The change in loss realization is quite pronounced, showing that even mid-term holders—who usually have a long-term outlook and can tolerate some amount of market volatility—are now bailing on their positions. This could be read as a sign of market weakness and an intensifying sense of uncertainty that has even experienced holders selling at a loss. The Evolution of Loss Realization Throughout 2025 In the early part of the year, the realized losses from Bitcoin sell-offs were largely coming from the younger coins. Most of these losses were coming from people who had recently bought their Bitcoin (either last month or three months ago). By February 27, for instance, when the price dropped to $86.7k, the total realized losses hit $51 million. The groups that were mostly selling were the ones that had held their Bitcoin for either one week to one month or one month to three months. They accounted for over 50% of these losses. Meanwhile, the next group up (three months to six months) was hardly selling at all and only accounted for 0.8% of those losses. This is how the losses were shared on February 27: – Price of Bitcoin: $86.7K – Total realized losses: $51M – 1 week–1 month cohort: $13.1M (25.7%) – 1 month–3 months cohort: $14.4M (28.2%) – 3 months–6 months cohort: $0.4M (0.8%) By then, it was evident that the losses were occurring among coins that had been recently bought. This indicated that newer holders were the ones reacting to price dips that were clearly short-term in nature. The reason for this part of the selling seemed to be the same as for the earlier part: fear, and possibly panic. The Shift Begins: Older Holders React to Market Pressure By the next day, February 28, 2023, (in 2023, beginnings are visible) a change compositionwise in the losses taken was already visible. While the price of Bitcoin had slipped a little to $83.7k, the losses being borne by the cohort of holders aged 3 to 6 months had surged nearly fivefold from the previous day. This was potentially the first sign of something worth noticing in all of this: older holders, who in most cases seem to be enduring price swings in the expectation of long-term gains, started to take some action in response to a downturn. On the 28th of February, the following losses were realized: – Price of Bitcoin: $83.7k – Overall losses taken: $51.1M – Losses from the 1w–1m cohort: $16.9M (33.1%) – Losses from the 1m–3m cohort: $12.3M (24.0%) – Losses from the 3m–6m cohort: $1.9M (3.8%) Here, the 1w-1m cohort’s share of losses surged to 33.1%, signaling that some short-term holders were still under pressure, while the 3m-6m cohort’s share grew to 3.8%. This shift in the loss composition suggested that the pain was spreading beyond the more recent investors, with mid-term holders starting to feel the strain. Broadening Capitulation: April 2025 Data Shows Even Split April 7 generated what are hopefully the final data to show how even the losses on Bitcoin are becoming. With the price of Bitcoin at $78.9k, total realized losses dropped to a low of $34.4 million. Yet, the composition of those losses is pretty interesting. Just about as many mid-term holders (holding for 1 month to 1 year) are cashing out and taking losses as are short-term holders (holding for 1 week to 1 month). Additionally, even more long-term holders (holding for 3 to 6 months) seem to be taking losses. This last point is particularly serious. It indicates that more and more people who bought Bitcoin last fall are shaking it off. Also, this seems to be a shift from the typical As of April 7, the losses were broken down as follows: – Bitcoin price: $78.9k – Total realized losses: $34.4M – 1w–1m cohort: $8.2M (23.8%) – 1m–3m cohort: $6.5M (18.9%) – 3m–6m cohort: $6.7M (19.4%) An even split between short-term and mid-term holders, with the 3m–6m cohort now accounting for 19.4% of total realized losses, suggests that the market is seeing a broadening of capitulation. This is often a precursor to a market bottom. The increase in losses from older cohorts indicates that more holders are choosing to sell and lock in their losses rather than wait for a market recovery. They seem to be acting on what is now a fairly consensus opinion among traders that the near-term price outlook is pretty dismal. In comparison to previous large #Bitcoin sell-offs YTD, losses are now spreading to older coins – especially in the 3m–6m group, whose share in loss realization jumped from 0.8% to 19.4% of total losses since Feb 27: pic.twitter.com/cShuvGCuLz — glassnode (@glassnode) April 9, 2025 What Does This Mean for Bitcoin’s Price Outlook? The market is receiving a very important signal from the change in loss acceptance from younger Bitcoin holders to older Bitcoin holders. This is such a clear and compelling signal that I believe it deserves a section of its own to discuss what it might imply for the price of Bitcoin going forward. The first thing to understand is that the kind of signal this loss acceptance shift is broadcasting is very similar to the type of signal that is often seen at the tail end of a market correction: This data may provide a possible buying chance for investors keeping an eye on the market, particularly if they think the present sell-off is approaching its conclusion. Otherwise, if things keep getting worse in the broader market, there’s definite downside risk for any buying we’re doing at this point. Moving deeper into 2025, it is vital to keep an eye on whether this surrender trend goes on and how it could influence the price of Bitcoin in the long run. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news !