HTX DeepThink is a flagship market insights column created by HTX , dedicated to exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world where volatility is the norm, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers “ Find Order in Chaos .” What does Trump’s emerging token plan mean for crypto markets? Why is the Fed holding rates steady, and what will it take to shift course? Behind Bitcoin’s rebound, are hidden risks lurking? In this edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1 ) from HTX Research breaks it all down. Trump’s Media Group to Launch “Utility Token,” Potentially Ushering in a New Era of U.S. Equity Tokenization On April 30, 2025, the Trump Media & Technology Group announced in a shareholder letter that it would collaborate with the Truth digital wallet to launch a new utility token called DJT . Initially, DJT will be used for payments on the Truth+ subscription service, with plans to expand into broader use cases across the Truth ecosystem, including tipping and transactional functions. The DJT trademark already spans digital wallets, crypto payments, and digital asset platforms, and Truth Social’s official account has rebranded with the “DJT” suffix—signaling deep integration between the token and the social platform. This marks the first time a publicly listed U.S. media company is launching a utility token tied to a real-world product ecosystem, signifying a historic convergence between traditional equities and on-chain asset formats. Although the team has yet to announce a release date, blockchain platform, or tokenomics, the rollout appears to follow Trump’s classic strategy: hype first, details later . Market participants expect a multi-phase, media-driven launch to maximize attention and adoption. At a time when memecoin mania is cooling and narratives are shifting toward utility and payment integration, DJT is hitting the market at just the right moment. Similar to HTX’s recent listing of WLFI’s USD1 stablecoin, demand for “practical crypto assets” is surging. DJT combines powerful political branding with real ecosystem support, offering long-term value potential far beyond that of short-lived meme-driven tokens. U.S.-China Rapprochement Fuels Risk Appetite, But Core Frictions Persist This weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva, marking the first high-level U.S.-China trade talks since tensions escalated in spring 2025. Key discussion points include the rollback of 145% tariffs, updates to export control policies, and restoring duty-free treatment for small cross-border parcels. Although both sides still dispute who initiated the talks, the meeting alone sends a strong signal of reengagement and diplomatic thawing . With tariffs at historic highs, markets are interpreting the summit as a short-term de-escalation of geopolitical risks—sparking a relief rally in risk assets. Following the news, Bitcoin rose by approximately 3.6%, briefly surpassing $97,000. This reflects how sensitive capital flows remain to macro-level easing signals. While structural differences between the two nations are far from resolved, the current window of policy détente may offer a short-term liquidity boost for digital assets, gold, and tech stocks . Powell Throws : “Now Is Not the Time to Cut Rates” On May 8, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. While this outcome was widely expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a noticeably more cautious tone during the press conference: “Now is not the time for us to lead with a rate cut.” “The cost of waiting is relatively low.” “Whether we cut this year depends on how things develop.” Powell emphasized that the U.S. is still grappling with stubborn inflation and that trade-related factors—especially tariffs—could add fresh upward pressure on prices. The Fed is currently caught in a “dual bind” : on one hand, disinflation has stalled, with PCE and CPI both above the 2% target. On the other, the central bank’s fiscal position is deteriorating. In FY2024, the Fed paid $226.8 billion in interest on reserves and reverse repos, but only earned $158.8 billion in interest income from its Treasury and MBS holdings—resulting in a $77.5 billion annual loss. A 25–30 bps rate cut could shave another $20 billion off annual income, further reducing remittances to the Treasury and raising concerns over the Fed’s policy independence. As a result, despite markets currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is more likely to take a “data-driven, delayed transition” approach. Investors should be cautious of emotional trades that outpace macro fundamentals, particularly as key economic indicators have yet to show clear deterioration. Labor Market Resilience Delays Policy Shift: Powell Says Unemployment Will Be Key Trigger In April, U.S. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000—beating expectations—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare, finance, and transportation. Although federal employment declined by 9,000 due to budget tightening, the labor market overall remains strong, showing no signs of systemic weakness. Against this backdrop, Powell reiterated that unemployment, not just inflation, will be the primary trigger for any policy pivot : “I can’t say what level of unemployment would be tolerable.” “We’ll assess overall labor market softness using comprehensive data.” This clearly sets the policy floor: only a material drop in payrolls or a sharp rise in unemployment (above 4.5%) could justify cutting rates even if inflation remains above target . BTC Stalls Near $99K: Options Market Shows No Clear Trend, Macro Data Will Dictate Direction Despite BTC rebounding to around $99,000 on geopolitical and monetary optimism, the options market is not confirming a strong directional bias. Deribit data shows implied volatility on June and July calls rising only modestly, while 25d risk reversals remain neutral to slightly bearish , and skew curves are relatively flat. Notably, large Gamma exposures are clustered around the $95,000–$100,000 range, indicating that BTC is currently trapped in a “high-volatility, low-conviction” zone awaiting macro catalysts. If CPI and jobs data for May–June remain hot, the Fed may push back on rate cut expectations— risking a BTC pullback . Conversely, if inflation cools and unemployment ticks up, Powell may pivot dovishly, providing a green light for BTC to break out of its volatility compression range and resume its bullish trend. *The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product. About HTX Research HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. Connect with HTX Research Team: [email protected] The post HTX DeepThink: Fed Sits Tight Amid Bind; Trump’s New Token on Horizon? first appeared on HTX Square .
