This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . The apps you bet on the Super Bowl with don’t offer odds on which crypto ETFs will hit the market in 2025. For that, many look to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — a duo that offered a credible voice for X users in the lead-up to bitcoin and ether ETF approvals last year. A litecoin ETF is the frontrunner to launch this year, they say — at 90%. Outside of LTC products, Seyffart and Balchunas are giving 75% odds for a dogecoin ETF approval in 2025. There is then a slight drop to 70% and 65% odds for solana and XRP ETFs, respectively. NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now. Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M — James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025 Some agree. But their followers aren’t afraid to share when they don’t . For what it’s worth, some of the Bloomberg guys’ opinions match what we’ve been hearing as well. I’ve written about these filings in spurts, but let me remind you of the thinking here. The SEC has not previously labeled LTC and DOGE as securities — a good thing if they want to end up in this type of ETF wrapper. The agency has also acknowledged the litecoin filings. That’s another good sign, because we’ve seen (before getting to that point) fund managers withdraw products the SEC isn’t ready to consider. Seyffart is expecting further acknowledgements this week. As for the assets Balchunas and Seyffart think have a slightly lower probability of ending up in a US ETF this year, SOL was deemed a security in several SEC lawsuits. And the regulator filed an appeal last month in its case against Ripple. Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty said in a January X post that he expects the “rehash of already failed arguments” to likely be “abandoned by the next administration.” Even so, Bitwise general counsel Katherine Dowling warned of the SEC’s “purgatorial state” until agency chair nominee Paul Atkins is confirmed. And she noted court cases don’t just go away overnight — “nor should they.” SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce confirmed that last week : “Determining how best to disentangle all these strands, including ongoing litigation, will take time.” Dowling added that DOGE is not among the “dolphins in the fish nets” — alluding to the assets with an unclear securities status (due to SEC claims). So why aren’t the LTC and DOGE ETF odds at 100%? Well almost nothing is a sure thing (you know the death and taxes mantra). ETF.com’s Sumit Roy told me last month “the SEC remains cautious about market manipulation and custody risks, which apply to all crypto ETFs.” The SEC’s 240-day clock to rule on the litecoin proposals runs out in early October. Mark your calendars. Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter . Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter . Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more. The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
