Key Takeaways: Analyst predicts that a low VIX, specifically below 18, signals a risk-on market, which could potentially boost the Bitcoin price to $135,000 within the next 100 days. The stablecoin market cap hits $220 billion, driving crypto liquidity and Bitcoin’s bullish price action. A negative Bitcoin funding rate hints at a possible short-squeeze to $100,000. Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson raised Bitcoin’s (BTC) chances of hitting a new high in 100 days, and he maintains an optimistic outlook in 2025. In an analysis shared on X that ties BTC’s price action to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) —an indicator that measures 30-day market volatility expectations — the analyst pointed out that the VIX index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. A VIX score below 18 implied a “risk-on” environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin. Peterson’s model, which had a 95% tracking accuracy, predicted a $135,000 target within the next 100 days if the VIX remains low. This aligns with Bitcoin’s sensitivity to market sentiment, as a low VIX reduces uncertainty, encouraging investment in riskier assets. Speaking on Bitcoin’s volatility, Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, compared Bitcoin’s nature to “Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde.” Timmer believed Bitcoin’s ability to act as both a store of value (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde) differentiates it from gold, which remains a consistent “hard money” asset. Timmer emphasized the dynamics between Bitcoin and the global money supply and said, “Note that when M2 has grown and the stock market is rallying, Bitcoin has been off to the races because it has both attributes working for it. But when M2 has grown and equities are correcting, not so much.” Bitcoin price against global money supply. Source: X.com This underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, making its performance less predictable than gold’s. Related: Crypto ‘decoupling’ story ends as stocks follow Bitcoin’s rally Stablecoin market cap hits record $220 billion Data from CryptoQuant highlighted that the stablecoin market capitalization hit a record $220 billion, signaling a liquidity surge in the crypto market. This marks Bitcoin’s exit from a bearish phase as capital flows return, and with stablecoins representing crypto liquidity, new BTC highs could be a likely outcome in the coming weeks. While BTC continues its uptrend, lower-time frame (LTF) charts reveal a shift in market dynamics. The funding rate for BTC futures has turned negative again, indicating a rise in short positions as traders bet against the rally. Bitcoin 4-hour chart and funding rate. Source: Velo.chart The 4-hour chart's funding rate has reached its most negative level in 2025, indicating that short-side liquidity significantly exceeds long-side liquidity. This creates a condition for a potential short squeeze. This imbalance could propel BTC toward the $100,000 level. Cointelegraph pointed out that over $3 billion is at risk for a short-side liquidation, which may amplify upward momentum, catching bearish traders off guard. Bitcoin short liquidations data. Source: X.com Related: Bitcoin hodler unrealized profits near 350% as $100K risks sell-off This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
