Summary Despite recent crypto market corrections, my thesis remains intact: XRP is still a buy due to its breakout and sustained strength. Trump's tariffs caused a significant market pullback, but Ripple's long-term breakout from a 4-year triangle pattern remains valid. XRP ETFs are on the horizon, offering easy access for retail and institutional investors, and Ripple's stablecoin shows strong growth. XRP's value is market-driven, not a Ponzi scheme; expect a bull market continuation once macroeconomic fears resolve. Invest wisely. Does my new thesis about Ripple still hold? Do Kwan famously tweeted "Steady Lads" during the initial phases of the 2022 Terra Luna system volatility in order to calm investors. Unfortunately, his attempts to instill confidence were doomed and the two coins of the Anchor protocol, UST and Luna basically both went to zero. In my last article , I made the case that Ripple had finally broken out of a 4-year triangle pattern by its major price move late in 2024. It had demonstrated real and sustained strength for several months. But since then, crypto has experienced multiple corrections with declines of 30% or more. Is this a Terra Luna moment for crypto? Is Ripple (XRP-USD) about to suffer the same fate? Is the market pessimism justified and the bull market over? Despite the major pullback in crypto during February and March, my thesis remains intact -- XRP is still a buy. In fact, there's been additional industry and Ripple-specific news to support this. What happened to the crypto market? Since the election of Donald Trump the crypto market has been a hot mess of initial optimism, followed by pessimism, characterized by extreme volatility. Expectations were high when Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) surpassed the $100,000 mark and XRP pushed past $3 in late January. But in early February Trump nuked the crypto and traditional finance markets by announcing a policy of new tariffs : Cryptocurrency markets suffered a sharp decline after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on major U.S. trading partners on Saturday, triggering widespread economic concerns. Trump's latest trade policy includes a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, reigniting concerns about a global trade war. Investors worry that these measures could drive up inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power and slow economic growth. XRP dropped 38% from a high of $3.22 in January to under $2.00 in March. 3-month chart XRP (TradingView) The song remains the same Is it time to panic? I don't think so. Let's pull back and look at the big picture. 5-year XRP chart (TradingView) The long-term chart reveals the truth. Despite the pullback, XRP is still well into breakout territory from its laborious 4-year previous triangle pattern. And, as any coin investment veteran can tell you, we've heard this song before. Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra and a crypto OG, put it this way : Bitcoin is now experiencing its 11th 25%+ correction in ten years and every time everyone reacts like the sky is falling and every time everyone screams that it’s different this time. This pullback looks, smells and feels 100% just like 2017 to me. Rising fiat liquidity leading to massive asset price gains. 2017 was a very good year and what's true for Bitcoin is true for the entire cryptocurrency market. Bull markets are wild and unpredictable with short-term booms and busts. The rational investor does not let the volatility scare them out of their positions. Nothing has fundamentally changed for XRP since my last article. In fact, there is more good news to report. XRP ETFs are coming My last article also differentiated between the real and fantasy drivers for usage and adoption of the XRP token. ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) is not going to overtake the predominant SWIFT Network and XRP is not going to be designated as the world's reserve currency. But I did document several significant items in the industry. First, there are now nine institutions that have filed for an XRP ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund). XRP ETF filings (CoinTelegraph) Although the SEC has postponed decisions on multiple ETF's , "Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the SEC’s decision delays on a slew of crypto ETFs are standard procedure and won’t affect their likely approval." The SEC has likely put a hold on these authorizations until Paul Atkins, the new incoming SEC chief, takes office as chairman. Once approved, these products will enable both retail and institutional investors easy access to allocate funds to XRP. Ripple's stablecoin continues growth Stablecoins continue to be the killer apps in the crypto space. Ripple launched their own stablecoin on December 17 of 2024 and has seen a market cap growth to north of $140 million. The usage statistics are very impressive for a newly minted coin: The stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) surpassed $3.02 trillion in total trading activity just over a month after its debut on centralized exchanges, according to a CCData report. In January alone, RLUSD recorded $2.84 trillion in trading volume as of Jan. 23, establishing itself as the fourth-largest stablecoin by trading volume. Jan. 4 saw the most RLUSD trading activity, reaching $400 million. Digital Asset Stockpile On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order creating a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded only by Bitcoin obtained via seizures. It also created a Digital Asset Stockpile for other coins : Sec. 2. Policy. It is the policy of the United States to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It is further the policy of the United States to establish a United States Digital Asset Stockpile that can serve as a secure account for orderly and strategic management of the United States’ other digital asset holdings. The Secretary of the Treasury shall establish an office to administer and maintain control of custodial accounts collectively known as the “United States Digital Asset Stockpile,” capitalized with all digital assets owned by the Department of the Treasury, other than BTC... The Secretary of the Treasury shall determine strategies for responsible stewardship of the United States Digital Asset Stockpile in accordance with applicable law. This action generated disappointment in the XRP, Cardano ( ADA-USD ), Solana ( SOL-USD ), and Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) communities. There was speculation that multiple cryptocurrencies would be enshrined in the Strategic Reserve after this Truth Social post by Trump : Trump post (Truth Social) The President either misspoke or changed his mind. Either way, it's clear that XRP will not be part of the Strategic Reserve. Its status in the Stockpile is dependent on the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. My research has found no ties to XRP in any of Bessent's previous career although Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has called him, “the perfect pick.” Conclusion Terra Luna collapsed because it resembled a quasi Ponzi scheme, where unsustainable 19% yields were propped up by new money. It was a flawed ecosystem where two coins were algorithmically supporting each other until they didn't. On the contrary, XRP's value is completely market-driven. It arguably has the most enthusiastic base of retail investors in crypto. XRP is still well above where it's been trading for most of the past 4 years, and there is good news in the form of ETFs and the stablecoin. When the macroeconomic tariff fears are finally resolved, we'll see a continuation of the bull market well into 2025. As always, think for yourself and only invest what you can afford to lose. In the wild world of crypto, there are no guarantees -- except perhaps volatility.
