Bitcoin May Not Have Topped Yet In This Cycle

Summary Bitcoin has been outperforming the stock market over the past month. This could be the start of a longer-term trend. I expect tariff fears to subside as deals are made between the U.S. and other countries. The price of Bitcoin appears to be bottoming out on the daily chart, with a bullish divergence in play. The length of Bitcoin price cycles has been consistent, suggesting there is more room to go for a rally in 2025. I have an important update for the price action of Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) in 2025. Some investors may think that the price of bitcoin already peaked around its 52-week high of $109,000. However, there are multiple positives that suggest that Bitcoin may make new highs in 2025. Bitcoin Holding Up Well vs. Stocks One of these positives is that the Bitcoin price action held up much better than the S&P 500 ( SPY ) over the past month. The S&P 500 declined 6% over the past month. Bitcoin increased by 1.16% over that same period. If bitcoin already peaked in this cycle, then I would expect it to decline significantly during the market's recent sell-off. The fact that bitcoin is holding up well vs. stocks suggests that the price has resilience which leaves open the possibility that there could be a strong rally in 2025. Just look back at the COVID market crash at the beginning of 2020. Bitcoin dropped about 60% in February and March 2020. The S&P 500 declined about 35% during those two months. Bitcoin declined significantly more than stocks back then. You would think that bitcoin would be significantly underperforming the stock market as it did back in early 2020. Now, with bitcoin outperforming stocks over the past month, the near-term bottom could be in for the cryptocurrency. Tariff Fears Will Probably Resolve Trump's 90-day pause (beginning on April 9, 2025) on most reciprocal tariffs leaves time for countries to negotiate deals with the United States. Over 50 countries contacted the White House for trade negotiations. I think that it is natural for other countries and the United States to come to agreements that are feasible for both sides to sustain healthy economic activity. The main uncertainty that prevails in the market is the relationship between China and the United States. The latest tariff imposed by the United States on China was a whopping 245% on certain goods. Of course, this is all a part of the negotiation process, with both countries imposing high tariffs on each other. Eventually, a rational discussion must be made for the interests of both parties. So, I would expect more rational tariffs to be implemented between the U.S. and China sometime soon. More clarity should come into focus on the tariff situation soon between the United States, China, and other countries, and its effects on economic activity. This situation looks like a type of chess match between all parties. When we get clarity on the tariff deals, it should allow the stock and crypto markets to rally again. Ultimately, the business market tends to adapt to any regulatory changes and to other factors that affect it. So, I think that will happen again regarding the current situation. This adaptation should eventually result in the S&P 500 and crypto markets to return to bullish price action. Technical Positives Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Daily Chart w/ RSI and MACD (TradingView) Bitcoin's daily chart above shows a bottoming process in the price since March 2025. This is indicated from March into April. At the same time, the purple RSI indicator in the middle of the chart and the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart have been increasing. This is known as a bullish divergence. Divergences like this are typically followed by a positive change in trend, from what I have observed. Another positive for Bitcoin's price action is what is known as the three-bar set-up. The three-bar set-up involves an igniting green bar, followed by a smaller bar, which is then followed by another strong confirmation bar. This was formed on April 9 through April 11. Bitcoin rallied strongly on April 9 on a volume spike, which was the igniting green bar. Then, some profit-taking took place on April 10 with the smaller red bar. The green confirmation bar was formed on April 11 as it increased higher than the previous pullback bar. Bitcoin rallied again on April 12, closing above the previous 3 bars. This could indicate a near-term bottom, with the price consolidating sideways since then. The purple RSI increased above its yellow moving average and above the 50 level. The blue MACD line increased above the red signal line while the histogram bars turned back to green. Both of these indicators are bullish which could drive bitcoin to rally soon. Amount of Days from the Price Bottom to Peak I pointed out in my previous Bitcoin article that the price of Bitcoin has been consistent from the bottom to the peak in each halving cycle. The previous two halving cycles lasted exactly 1,064 days from the price bottom to the peak price. Bitcoin's 1st halving cycle lasted a little longer at 1,148 days. So, if this cycle lasts about 1,064 days like the previous two, this market wouldn't peak until October 2025. The consistency in the length of days from the price bottom to the peak strongly suggests that Bitcoin may not have topped out yet in this cycle. Risks to the Investment Thesis It could take a while for the tariff situation to resolve, which could delay any strong rallies for bitcoin. It is also possible that the tariffs lead to a recession in the United States. JPMorgan Research ( JPM ) recently increased the odds of a recession to 60% for 2025 , which was raised from its previous estimate of 40% from earlier this year. JPMorgan stated that the 10% universal tariff could be a threat to economic growth. JPM also stated that the high tariff on China increases the odds of a recession. Significant negative economic news could drive the price of bitcoin lower. It is also possible that the price of Bitcoin did already peak for this halving cycle. There is no guarantee that this cycle will last as long as the previous three cycles from the bottom to the peak price. The price of bitcoin is highly volatile. Investors need to understand that the price of bitcoin can decline 20% to 30% even during its bull markets. Investors should also prepare for large declines of 70% to 80% after the peak price is in for this cycle. Bitcoin's bear markets are steep, which is why I prefer to exit the market near the peak to avoid the biggest losses. Bitcoin's Outlook for the Remainder of 2025 Tariff fears and the risk of a recession are still at the forefront of many investors' minds. This could lead to more volatility for the stock market and the price of Bitcoin. The good news is that Bitcoin has been outperforming the stock market over the past month. This could be a temporary situation, or bitcoin could be decoupling from the stock market over a longer period of time. Bitcoin also has a good bottoming formation and bullish divergence on the daily chart, which could turn into a rally. Each of Bitcoin's halving cycles from the price bottom to the price peak lasted at least 1,064 days. If this remains consistent, bitcoin could rally into October 2025 before making its normal steep decline. My opinion is that the tariff situation will calm down over the next several months. This will lead to a rally for bitcoin possibly into October. I could be wrong, but the recent stability of Bitcoin's price action as compared to the stock market leads me to believe this is the beginning of a rally to new all-time highs.