Data reveals US institutions and funds driving adoption as reserves climb to record levels, aligning with rising institutional interest. Meanwhile, economist Timothy Peterson has set a bold 2035 price target of $1.5 million per Bitcoin, attributing the projection to Bitcoin's expanding network value. US Bitcoin Reserves Dominate Offshore Holdings Amid Institutional Demand Surge Bitcoin reserves held by US-based entities have soared to unprecedented levels, significantly outpacing those held offshore, according to recent data from CryptoQuant. As of Jan. 9, the reserve share of US entities has reached an all-time high, with reserves 65% greater than those held by offshore players. This marked dominance represents a significant shift in the distribution of Bitcoin ownership, reflecting the growing institutional demand and regulatory clarity in the US market. CryptoQuant data highlights a steady climb in the ratio of Bitcoin reserves held by US entities compared to offshore counterparts. The ratio, which stood at 1.24 in September 2024, surged to a peak of 1.66 in December, holding steady at 1.65 as of January 2025. This means that for every Bitcoin held offshore, US entities now hold 65% more. The metric considers Bitcoin holdings of major US players, including corporations like MicroStrategy, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchanges, miners, and the US government. This data sheds light on the significant impact of US-based institutional and governmental involvement in the Bitcoin market. The surge in US Bitcoin holdings coincides with a robust rally in Bitcoin’s price. In September 2024, when Bitcoin was trading at $60,000, offshore entities held a majority of reserves. However, as Bitcoin soared past $100,000, peaking at $108,135, US reserve dominance reached record levels. MicroStrategy, a key player in the corporate adoption of Bitcoin, exemplifies this trend. The company disclosed a recent purchase of 1,070 BTC between Dec. 30 and Dec. 31, 2024, at an average price of $94,004 per Bitcoin. This $101 million acquisition brought MicroStrategy’s total holdings to an astounding 447,470 BTC, worth approximately $28 billion—accounting for 2.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply. MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, funded by convertible note sales, indicates a growing appetite among US institutions for Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The introduction of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has also fueled the surge in US-held Bitcoin reserves. According to Sosovalue , these ETFs have attracted inflows of $106.8 billion to date, offering both institutional and retail investors a regulated and accessible route to Bitcoin exposure. These ETFs, combined with growing regulatory clarity in the US market, have provided a fertile ground for institutional adoption, driving the dominance of US entities in Bitcoin ownership. Bitcoin Price Corrections and Market Dynamics Despite the positive momentum, Bitcoin has faced a healthy price correction after crossing the $100,000 milestone. Bitcoin’s price retraced to $93,000 following a brief dip to $92,500, triggered by concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening for 2025. According to CoinGlass , the crypto market saw $521 million in liquidations during this correction, with $345 million stemming from long positions. The sell-off was exacerbated by hotter-than-expected US job data, with JOLTS job openings rising to 8.1 million against a forecast of 7.74 million. The labor market strength spurred risk-off sentiment, causing long-term bond yields to spike and triggering a sell-off in risky assets like Bitcoin. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno described the ongoing price correction as “healthy,” noting that traders’ unrealized profit margins have declined, which is expected after such a robust rally. Analysts believe the $95,000 level serves as a critical support zone, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next upward move. With institutional interest showing no signs of waning, and US entities continuing to accumulate Bitcoin at an aggressive pace, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish in the long term. The current dominance of US entities in Bitcoin reserves marks a new chapter in the cryptocurrency’s evolution, underscoring the pivotal role of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity in shaping the market’s future. Bitcoin's Bold Future: Analyst Predicts $1.5 Million Price Tag by 2035 Bitcoin has always been a magnet for bold predictions, and the latest forecast is no exception. Timothy Peterson, a renowned network economist and author of the influential paper Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, has set a new benchmark for Bitcoin’s long-term potential. In a post on X dated Jan. 8, Peterson confidently forecast that Bitcoin will reach a staggering $1.5 million per coin by 2035. Peterson’s projection is rooted in his model, which applies Metcalfe’s Law—a principle that correlates the value of a network to the square of its number of users—to Bitcoin’s expanding global adoption. “The year is 2035. Bitcoin is at—and you can hold me to this—$1.5 million,” Peterson declared, hinting at the inevitability of Bitcoin’s dominance as its network effect strengthens. Peterson’s bullish outlook isn’t new. His 2018 paper argued that Bitcoin’s value is best understood through models that account for network connectivity rather than traditional currency valuation metrics. He has consistently championed Bitcoin as an asset class poised for exponential growth. Peterson’s confidence isn’t without precedent. In 2020, his “Lowest Price Forward” indicator accurately predicted that Bitcoin would never again trade below $10,000—a claim that has held true to this day. Last year, he pinpointed Bitcoin’s local price bottom in September to within eight days, further bolstering his reputation as a reliable analyst in the crypto space. His confidence in Bitcoin’s trajectory was reiterated in a Jan. 2 post where he described recent market conditions as “nothing special,” expressing his belief that Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition far outweighs short-term price fluctuations. While Peterson’s long-term projection paints a bright future for Bitcoin, the near-term outlook remains a topic of debate. Bitcoin, currently trading at $93,535, has faced mixed market sentiment as it consolidates following a bullish Q4 in 2024. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, summarized the current sentiment succinctly: “This dip isn’t done dipping.” Alan pointed to ongoing price suppression, with buyers waiting for lower entry points around $86,500—a level that represents a 20% correction from Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $108,135. Alan also highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to fill a CME gap at $77,900, indicating a significant downside risk before the next bullish rally can take hold. The Role of Macro Events and Institutional Momentum The upcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump has added another layer of intrigue to Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Market observers are watching closely for policy changes that could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory, particularly as institutional players continue to play an outsized role in shaping its price. Institutions have fueled much of Bitcoin’s recent rally, with spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and corporate treasuries accumulating substantial reserves. These developments align with Peterson’s thesis that Bitcoin’s value will scale alongside its adoption and integration into mainstream financial systems. Peterson’s forecast of $1.5 million per Bitcoin by 2035 is a strong indication of the transformative potential of Bitcoin as a network-driven asset. His prediction serves as a reminder of the groundbreaking changes Bitcoin has already undergone and the revolutionary possibilities it still holds. However, as with any investment, the path to Peterson’s target is unlikely to be linear. Market corrections, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic factors will continue to create volatility. For traders and investors, this means balancing optimism about Bitcoin’s future with a clear-eyed view of its present challenges.
