China has made it pretty clear this week that US President Donald Trump can do whatever he wants with Russia, but he’s not breaking up the Xi Jinping-Vladimir Putin bromance. In a call on Monday, Xi told Putin their relationship isn’t changing, no matter what, and Putin agreed, according to a report TASS. The two leaders had the call on the third anniversary of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, where they once again called each other “best friends” and dismissed the idea that the United States could drive a wedge between them. China’s foreign ministry released details from the call on Tuesday, and the transcript confirmed that Putin briefed Xi on his recent talks with Trump’s team. Xi then called Russia a “good neighbor” and a “true friend.” China warns the U.S.: War is a losing game China is actually in the middle of a major economic beef with America right now. On Thursday, Beijing sent a direct warning to the United States, saying any kind of war—trade, economic, or military—is a bad bet. “The U.S. needs to realize that China is not a mirror image of the hegemonic U.S.,” China’s embassy in Washington posted on X. “The U.S. should stop viewing China-U.S. relations with an outdated Cold War mentality. The U.S. must no longer seek to contain or go after China in the name of strategic competition. Whatever kind of war it is—a tariff war, a trade war, a cold war, or a hot war—they should not be fought and cannot be won.” The post was a direct response to Pete Hegseth, Trump’s defense secretary, who told Fox & Friends on Wednesday unprovoked that the U.S. is “prepared” to go to war with China. Beijing didn’t take that lightly. Since returning to office, Trump has hit China with 10% tariffs on all its goods. Beijing responded with its own economic countermeasures. Last Friday, Trump escalated things by announcing new restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S., turning the standoff into a full-on economic fight. Russia-China trade is booming despite Western sanctions While standing on business with America, China is also strengthening its economic ties with Moscow. Since the Ukraine invasion in 2022, Russia has faced Western sanctions, but China stepped in to fill the gaps. Beijing has provided electronic components for Russia’s military and increased oil purchases, keeping Russia’s economy alive. Trade between China and Russia has surged—up 70% from 2021 to 2024, according to Chinese customs data. Some U.S. analysts have floated the idea that Trump is trying to pull off a “reverse Nixon”—a strategy to bring Russia closer to the U.S. and isolate China. But Wall Street economists aren’t convinced. “China and Russia have built a more comprehensive partnership that extends beyond security to economic development,” said Cui Hongjian, a scholar at Beijing Foreign Studies University, on Wednesday. “These are not the same countries they once were.” Despite Trump’s outreach to Putin, China’s state-run newspaper Global Times dismissed claims that Beijing is worried about a possible U.S.-Russia alignment, saying instead that Washington “underestimates” the strength of China-Russia relations. Meanwhile, earlier this morning, Trump threatened large-scale sanctions on Russia until a ceasefire and final peace deal is reached with Ukraine. In response, Putin said he is ready to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine, but with some conditions. Trump and Putin will have a phone call on Monday to discuss what those conditions are, according to TASS. China sees opportunity if Ukraine war ends For China, a Russian victory in Ukraine will be highly beneficial, because the war has created challenges for Beijing, damaging its reputation in Europe and leading to U.S. sanctions against Chinese companies. “If the war ended on Russia’s terms, it would be a defeat of the West,” said Joseph Torigian, a Russia-China relations scholar at American University in Washington. “China would benefit from that outcome.” The conflict has also strained China’s relationship with Europe. Political scientist Li Cheng from Hong Kong University said that Beijing wants to repair its standing with European nations. “When the Ukraine war broke out, European countries became more critical, more concerned about China,” he said. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hinted at this change during a speech at the Munich Security Conference last month, where he said, “China has always seen in Europe an important pole in the multipolar world.” But there’s a bigger concern—what happens when the Ukraine war is over? Some in Beijing fear that if Russia no longer needs resources for its war effort, the U.S. will turn its focus fully on competing with China. “If there was peace in Ukraine, then resources that the U.S., and perhaps the Europeans, had previously devoted to propping up Ukraine then get refocused to Asia,” said Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, on Thursday. That’s exactly the argument some Trump allies are making. Elbridge Colby, US defense strategist awaiting confirmation for a senior U.S. position, said in 2023 that the U.S. “will need to reduce monetary and military support [to Ukraine] to enable a greater focus on Asia.” For Xi, that means one thing: keeping bestie Putin close is more important than ever right now.
