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ZyCrypto 2025-05-24 14:42:11

Analysts Forecast Institutions Will Own 20% of Bitcoin Supply by 2026

Analysts Forecast Institutions Will Own 20% of Bitcoin Supply by 2026

According to a Thursday report from crypto investment firm Bitwise, institutional investors are on track to hold a staggering 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, approximately 4.2 million BTC, by the end of 2026 . This projection highlights a new chapter in Bitcoin’s adoption story, driven not by retail enthusiasm or tech innovation but by strategic financial decisions from governments, corporations, and wealth managers. Bitwise’s estimates peg the cumulative institutional inflows into Bitcoin at $120 billion in 2025 and another $300 billion in 2026, assuming a benchmark BTC price of $100,000. These inflows would bring the institutional share of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply to more than 20%. “We’re entering an era where Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s becoming a balance-sheet imperative,” said Bitwise analysts. “From nation-states to Wall Street wirehouses, everyone is eyeing Bitcoin as a strategic asset.” Notably, the report breaks down institutional buyers into five key groups: nation-states, public companies, U.S. states, wealth management platforms, and sovereign wealth funds. According to the firm, the U.S. government already leads the pack with 198,000 BTC in federal custody. If new legislation like the BITCOIN Act is passed, the analyst projects that that number could climb by 200,000 BTC annually for the next five years. Corporations, too, are accelerating adoption. Public companies hold over 600,000 BTC, and Bitwise expects that number to nearly double by 2026. One notable newcomer, Twenty-One, a Bitcoin-native public company backed by Tether and SoftBank, is launching with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Bitwise credits recent accounting rule changes by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in the corporate sector as a major tailwind. These rules allow companies to mark Bitcoin holdings at fair market value, incentivizing broader adoption. Wealth management firms, long considered sleeping giants, are also awakening. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and other firms managing a combined $60 trillion in assets are beginning to greenlight Bitcoin ETFs. If even 0.5% of that wealth shifts into BTC, that alone would account for over 3 million coins, which is roughly 14% of the total supply. Perhaps most striking is the momentum behind sovereign adoption. Central banks facing inflation and geopolitical instability are increasingly eyeing Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The Bitwise report models a scenario where even 5% of global gold reserves are converted into Bitcoin, resulting in 1.6 million BTC moving to state treasuries. At the state level, more than a dozen U.S. states are exploring Bitcoin reserve strategies. Texas, Arizona, and New Hampshire have already passed legislation, and others like Ohio and North Carolina are considering similar moves. If the Bitwise forecasts are correct, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics will be permanently altered, setting the stage for heightened scarcity and potentially explosive price movement. “These aren’t short-term trades,” Bitwise concluded. “Institutions accumulating Bitcoin today are preparing for a world where it becomes a global reserve standard.”

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