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The Crypto Basic 2025-06-21 15:58:25

Here’s XRP Price If XRP ETFs Get 35% of Bitcoin ETF Flows, as Bloomberg Now Pegs Approval Odds at 95%

Here’s XRP Price If XRP ETFs Get 35% of Bitcoin ETF Flows, as Bloomberg Now Pegs Approval Odds at 95%

XRP might be looking at a massive price rally if spot XRP ETFs pull in even a slice of the capital that has poured into Bitcoin ETF products. Most recently, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart confirmed that they have updated the chances of an XRP ETF approval to 95%. This has further triggered excitement about what that could mean for XRP's price.XRP Price if XRP ETFs Attract 35% of Bitcoin ETF InflowsNotably, if XRP ETFs attract a small fraction, say 35% of the net flows that Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in since launching in January 2024, our calculations indicate that XRP price could reach nearly $30. To put things into perspective, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $46.66 billion in net inflows since their launch. If XRP manages to pull in 35% of that, it will record about $16.331 billion in netflows. Such a development would have a tremendous impact on prices.Importantly, in market valuations, price doesn't rise one-for-one with capital inflows. Instead, traders use multipliers to estimate how inflows affect market cap. Some past multipliers reached 674x .However, for the sake of achieving a conservative estimate, we leveraged a more modest 100x multiplier, which gives a clearer picture without overhyping. At that rate, $16.331 billion in ETF inflows would add $1.633 trillion to XRP's value.Right now, XRP has a market cap of $125.87 billion and trades at $2.13, with a circulating supply of 58.93 billion tokens. If you add $1.633 trillion to its current market cap, the total jumps to $1.759 trillion. That puts XRP's projected price at $29.89 per token, nearly $30, considering the current circulating supply.Updates Surrounding XRP ETFsNotably, this scenario feels more realistic now that expectations around XRP ETF approvals have jumped. Bloomberg's Seyffart and Balchunas recently pointed to ongoing engagement from the U.S. SEC and said they believe approval will come; it's just a matter of time. Traders also show strong confidence on prediction platforms like Polymarket, where odds of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 have jumped to around 88%. XRP ETFs Approval Odds Polymarket XRP ETFs Approval Odds | Polymarket Institutional interest has also picked up. At press time, 2025, several major players, including Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Bitwise, have already filed applications for spot XRP ETFs, and those filings now sit under SEC review.Franklin Templeton's proposal has drawn the most attention. The firm filed in March 2025, and while the SEC recently delayed its decision again, the move followed standard procedure. The agency also opened a public comment window, giving investors until late July to weigh in on proposed rule changes.Meanwhile, Canada has already moved ahead . This week, the Toronto Stock Exchange rolled out three spot XRP ETFs, showing that global demand for regulated XRP investment products is real and growing.If U.S. regulators follow Canada's lead and XRP ETFs pick up just part of the traction Bitcoin ETFs have seen, XRP could be in for one of the biggest moves in its history.

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