Key takeaways : XRP is retesting a falling wedge breakout, which could lead to a rally toward $3.60. Whale wallets are in the red, and history shows this isn’t bullish for XRP price. A breakdown below $1.11 could trigger an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, targeting a sharp drop to $0.50. XRP ( XRP ) has rebounded by more than 50% in the last five weeks to reach $2.42 on May 16. But the price remains 30% below its January 2025 peak of $3.40, raising concerns of a bull trap. Will XRP’s price sustain the recovery or drop further in the coming days? Let’s examine. Falling wedge retest hints at sharp XRP rally XRP is completing a textbook retest of its falling wedge breakout, according to chartist CW. Often, after the breakout, the price comes back down to “retest” the wedge’s upper trendline. If it holds as support, meaning buyers step in and prevent the price from falling back into the wedge, it signals strong demand and renewed confidence in the uptrend. XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView CW predicts XRP will hold above its falling wedge’s upper trendline, which could help its prices climb higher toward the technical upside target of $3.60. Related: History rhymes? XRP price gained 400% the last time whale flows flipped This target is obtained by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point, as shown below. XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView The wedge setup suggests that XRP will likely not crash in the coming days. But if the price drops below the wedge’s upper trendline, the bullish setup risks invalidation, exposing XRP to declines toward the lower trendline at around $1.75. Max pain scenario: 50% XRP price crash Simultaneously, XRP is possibly signi a bearish reversal signal as it forms an inverse cup-and-handle pattern. The pattern has developed over the past five months, with the rounded "cup" forming between December 2024 and March 2025, followed by the "handle" consolidation into May. The neckline support sits near $1.11. XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView A confirmed breakdown below this level could validate the pattern and trigger a deeper correction. Based on the pattern’s height, the projected downside target is around $0.50, a nearly 80% drop from current levels. The declining volume during the handle phase and the neutral RSI reading near 50 further support the risk of bearish continuation. XRP’s whale fractal indicates price drop below $1 As of May 15, the XRP price is below the $2.58 average paid by its biggest holders—those holding over 10,000 XRP in their wallets. XRP realized price by wallet size. Source: Glassnode When XRP whales are in the red, the price often rebounds toward their average buy level, but this bounce can be short-lived. Historically, it’s followed by a broader pullback that tests the average entry prices of smaller holders. For example, in September 2021, XRP briefly rose to $1.19, just above the whale realized price of $1.01. But soon after, it dropped below $1.10, retesting the entry levels of other wallet groups as support. XRP realized price by wallet size. Source: Glassnode It shows that realized prices act as magnets for price action, indicating XRP could rise toward the whale realized prices of $2.58 in the short term. In the worst-case scenario, XRP’s price can drop to $0.67, the realized price of the 1,000-10,000 XRP balance cohort. Taking the aggregated realized price, XRP’s target appears to be around $1.04. On the other hand, a continued rally above $2.58 will suggest bullish conviction among whales, which could be boosted by the launch of spot XRP ETFs in the US . This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
