BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that the inauguration of US President-Elect Donald Trump will cause a “vicious sell-off” across the cryptocurrency market. In an article dubbed “ Trump Truth,” Hayes outlined his bearish outlook, saying that the crypto market had high expectations about the Trump Presidency. However, the administration would likely not enact policies as quickly as the market anticipated. “The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has at best one year to enact any policy changes on or around January 20th. This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades,” Hayes stated. According to the analyst, the US political landscape could also curtail the speed at which the Trump administration fulfills its campaign promises. This is because if Republicans fail to maintain the majority during the 2026 mid-term elections, it could cripple the efforts of the Trump administration. Past policies might hinder change Hayes also noted that the US administration was still dealing with the effects of poor monetary policies. Therefore, if friendly crypto policies fail to come into effect as fast as the market anticipates, traders could begin to dump. Furthermore, the issues that led to Trump and the Republican party getting overwhelming support during the November 5 elections were still in play and could not be solved immediately. “I don’t believe the markets realize how little time Trump actually has to accomplish anything,” he added. “The issues that gave rise to Trump’s popularity are decades in the making. As such, there are no immediate solutions regardless of what Elon Musk tells you on X.” Due to these factors, Hayes believes the market will dump around the inauguration on January 20. However, if the market continues to rally beyond this date, this bearish thesis will be defeated, and the current bull market will extend. Plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve While speaking during the 2024 Bitcoin conference earlier this year, Trump announced plans to set up a strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has also proposed a bill to set up this reserve. Hayes has opined that it is unlikely that the US will directly purchase Bitcoin. However, if these purchases were to happen, it could bode well for BTC’s fiat price. “If the US government creates more dollars via a gold devaluation and uses some of those dollars to buy Bitcoin, its fiat price will rise. This will in turn spur competitive sovereign purchases by other nations who have to play catchup with the US,” he added.
