Former President Donald Trump’s executive order is expected to reshape Bitcoin’s (BTC) market cycle, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. He predicts that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle will become less intense, with shorter corrections, due to rising institutional adoption. Hougan highlighted the significance of Trump’s order and the SEC’s recent pro-crypto stance as key factors driving Bitcoin’s mainstream growth. On January 23, Trump signed an order to create a “national digital asset stockpile,” leading to a massive $1.9 billion surge in crypto investments. This decision, Hougan argues, has paved the way for major Wall Street firms and institutional investors to enter the market aggressively. Bitcoin’s latest cycle began in March 2023, when Grayscale won a critical legal battle against the SEC regarding a Bitcoin ETF. This victory set the stage for the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, attracting billions in investments. However, Hougan believes Trump’s executive order will bring an even greater transformation. In his weekly memo, Hougan discussed how mainstream adoption is progressing beyond expectations. He envisions a scenario where banks will soon custody crypto assets alongside traditional investments, stablecoins will integrate into global payments, and major institutions will secure significant crypto holdings. These changes, he claims, could lead to the inflow of trillions of dollars into the crypto market. Bitcoin historically follows a four-year cycle driven by halving events, which reduce the mining rewards and impact price movements. The pattern typically consists of an accumulation phase, a bull run, and a subsequent downturn. Past declines occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022, suggesting another drop in 2026 if history repeats itself. However, Hougan remains optimistic, citing the market’s maturity and a broader range of investors as reasons for a more resilient future. Looking ahead, Hougan predicts that 2025 will be a landmark year for Bitcoin, with prices potentially surpassing $200,000 . He attributes this growth to continued ETF inflows and increased adoption by corporations and governments. However, he acknowledges that this forecast might be conservative, as the crypto industry is evolving rapidly. Despite his optimism, Hougan cautions that the road ahead won’t be without challenges. He expects market excesses, leverage buildup, and potential bad actors to emerge, which could trigger temporary pullbacks. However, he believes any correction will be shorter and less severe than in previous cycles, thanks to the market’s increasing maturity and a stronger investor base. Regulatory shifts triggered by Trump’s order will take time to develop. Hougan estimates that crafting a new framework could take at least a year, while Wall Street firms may require even longer to fully integrate crypto into their operations. In the meantime, Bitcoin’s growth trajectory appears strong, supported by institutional backing and mainstream acceptance. In summary, Bitcoin’s cycle may be evolving, but its future remains promising. With institutional adoption accelerating and regulatory clarity improving, Hougan sees a path toward sustained growth, making 2025 a potentially historic year for the crypto market.
