Global crypto investment firm VanEck has asserted that if the government accumulates a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, it could help offset over $20 trillion in U.S. debt by 2049. In a Thursday report, VanEck detailed its projections, outlining how Bitcoin’s appreciation could significantly impact sovereign debt management. “If the U.S. government follows the Bitcoin Act’s proposed path – accumulating 1 million BTC by 2029, our analysis suggests this reserve could offset around $21 trillion of national debt by 2049. That would amount to 18% of total U.S. debt at that time.” The firm noted. Notably, with U.S. national debt currently at $36.22 trillion, VanEck’s assumptions are based on a 5% annual increase, projecting total debt to reach around $116 trillion by 2049. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 25%, potentially reaching $21 million per BTC. The firm’s latest statement builds on its December report, which predicted that a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help the U.S. reduce its national debt by 35% by 2050. At that time, the firm estimated Bitcoin could reach a price of $42.3 million by 2049, while federal obligations could grow to $119.3 trillion. VanEck has also examined potential Bitcoin acquisitions at the state level. A report earlier this month estimated that state-level Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bills could lead to purchases totaling 242,787 BTC, roughly $23.5 billion, further integrating Bitcoin into public finance. The firm further suggested that pension fund investments could increase this figure. The debate over the U.S. using Bitcoin to offset national debt gained momentum after Senator Cynthia Lummis, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, introduced the Bitcoin Act last July. The bill proposes establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to strengthen the U.S. dollar. Recently, Lummis clarified the act’s intent, stating, “To be clear, the ‘strategic’ purpose of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is to explicitly, strategically, pay down government debt hanging over the head of every American. Put future Americans on a better footing, unencumbered by debt that they never supported or benefited from.” That said, as discussions around a Bitcoin reserve gain traction, prominent figures like Michael Saylor have voiced support, projecting its potential impact on the U.S. economy at $81 trillion. Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao speculated that if a future Trump administration embraced such policies, it could trigger a “race between states in the digital gold market.”
