Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has increased the odds of a recession in the United States. The bank, along with other institutional giants, also backed more policy rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in response to the economic downturn. Several analysts expect Bitcoin’s (BTC) price to climb after a dip below $80k. Fed Rate Cuts To Boost BTC Price According to the Goldman Sachs forecast, the Feds will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in each meeting three times. This aligns with similar sentiments on Wall Street, which also calls for lower rates. Wells Fargo Investment Institute and JP Morgan raised expected rate cuts to three. JPMorgan has previously tipped two cuts, with policy rates falling to 4.25%. Overall, most firms gauged 116 basis point cuts, highlighting a reduction in at least four of five Fed meetings. This projection is a major positive for the crypto market, as fund flows to risky assets are expected. On the other hand, rate hikes see investors move funds out of these assets, with the Feds seeking to lower inflation. Several interest rate cuts will fuel a market recovery coupled with signs of growing institutional demand. Recent events like the approval of spot crypto ETFs have heightened tradfi participation. A move to lower rates now will see Wall Street gravitate towards the market. This scenario occurred in 2024 following global policy rate cuts after central banks posted cooling inflation. It should be noted that the heated macro continues its correlation with crypto prices. Bitcoin trades at $79,688 at press time, plummeting over 6% in the last 24 hours. The wider market also fell over 5%, lowering the market cap to $2.47 trillion. Bitcoin bulls currently set their sights on an institutional-driven rally to $90k. Is A United States Recession Imminent? President Trump’s sweeping tariffs have impacted global trade, negatively affecting U.S. stocks. This low confidence triggered massive outflows, with investors taking huge losses. Following recent economic woes, Goldman Sachs raised the odds on the possibility of a U.S. recession to 45%. This marks the second raise in a week as economists project the effect of the tariffs. Last week, the bank raised its recession estimate from 20% to 35%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan places the odds at 60%, citing inflation and other factors as effects of the widespread tariffs. This comes as firms lower their U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025.
