The $TRUMP token, which at one time commanded the headlines with a market cap of over 13 billion dollars and traded at more than 70 dollars per token, is now worth considerably less — just 1.5 billion dollars. It has lost around 80 percent of its apparent peak value in a sort of sharp and disconcerting descent. With this drop, the market is now reeling, and our attention is rapidly shifting from price action to what really matters: tokenomics. In particular, the focus is on what the upcoming unlock will mean for the already weakened market. The market is still digesting this drop, and all the moves post-drop, but it’s safe to say that no one is happy about it. Low Float, High FDV: A Dangerous Combination $TRUMP is a low float, high fully diluted value (FDV) token. The token has a high FDV due to its total supply, yet only about 20 percent of the total $TRUMP supply is circulating, with the other 80 percent still locked. This creates a not very sturdy market dynamic and a price discovery process that is very much not sturdy and easily influenced by the price of just a few tokens. Additionally, the upcoming unlock is imminent — set for April 18, 2025 — and it’s a substantial amount. Based on what the tokenomics say, about 321.6 million dollars’ worth of $TRUMP tokens will be released on that date. To put it in context, this number is almost 20 percent of the current supply that is in circulation, and all of it is going to the founding team and standardizers — a kind of person that is usually associated with gaining a return on investment. Remember when $TRUMP was trading above $70 with a market cap over $13B? Today, it has shrunken down to just $1.5B — a staggering 80%+ drop from all-time high. And the craziest part? This price crash happened before any major token unlocks. pic.twitter.com/siQpdCR6Dl — Tokenomist (prev. TokenUnlocks) (@Tokenomist_ai) April 14, 2025 An unlock, particularly when given wholly to insiders, sets off alarm bells for investors. In the past, similar unlocks in other tokens — especially in projects linked to celebrities or influencers — have led to substantial market drops. If the newly unlocked amount doesn’t have an equivalent jump in buying or demand to soak it up, then the unlocked supply is just going to hit the market and very possibly make prices re-enter free fall. Not a One-Time Event: A Long Road of Unlocks Ahead This is likely to be a slow and steady unlock of assets, which will continue for a long time. Newer token holders will get their hands on the virtual currency, and quite a few of them might want to sell it immediately, judging by pattern (i.e., pre-ICO holders mostly sold when they got their tokens). This is a vital point for $TRUMP holders. With already shaky sentiment and a price that has pulled back sharply from its highs, the possible scenario of the project issuing large amounts of tokens repeatedly into the market could make it much harder for the price to recover—especially in a macro environment that isn’t exactly overflowing with strong bullish catalysts. In the same week, over $1 billion in token unlocks are happening—not just for $TRUMP, but also for big names like ARB (Arbitrum), FTN (Fantom), STRK (StarkNet), and others. In a market that’s choppy, low in liquidity, and defined by a very cautious sentiment, even the strongest projects can have a tough time under large unlocks. This serves as a stark reminder for investors and traders that fundamentals count. Market players are paying a lot more attention these days to not just token supply schedules and utility, but also to who exactly holds what kinds of token allocations. Because in a world where valuations can no longer be propped up by mere hype, it really matters what kind of game you’re in. What Comes Next? The $TRUMP token can still rebound, but it will most likely take a complete pivot in the current market to accomplish that. Demand will have to come from something; the token can’t just hover in limbo. Ecosystem development, community engagement, and a market uptick in general are all potential catalysts, but it’s not super clear yet which one, if any, will do the trick. Investors would do well to keep an eye not only on price charts but also on tokenomics calendars. So much supply is about to come to market — with insiders sitting on plenty of unrealized gains — that you would have to be a 10,000-foot-view kinda guy to see this as anything other than a recipe for volatility. If this new stock isn’t gobbled up by a huge new wave of buyers, then $TRUMP looks to be nothing more than a cash-grab token, like $ELON or the many other narrative-driven tokens that enjoy short-lived, sycophantic trading. In fact, you could argue that right now, $TRUMP is looking a whole hell of a lot more like a cash-grab token than a viable crypto project. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news !
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