Key takeaways: Bitcoin holds $95,000 as Fed rate cut odds rise to 60% for June 18 and US economy slumps. Breaking $95,000 could push BTC price toward $100,000, while dropping below $93,000 may bring the $84,000 back into the picture. Key Bitcoin levels to watch remain around the long-term holders’ cost basis. Bitcoin ( BTC ) is once again attempting to break above $95,000 on May 1 as markets price in that the US Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner than expected. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView Fed rate cut will drive BTC price higher Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin edging higher hours after dipping below $93,000 following US GDP data that reflected a shrinking economy . A contracting economy will likely prompt the Fed to lower rates to stimulate activity sooner rather than later. This reduces yields on traditional assets like bonds, pushing investors toward Bitcoin and risk-on assets. The odds of a Fed interest rate cut at the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting have increased over the last week, from 57% on April 30 to 60% on May 1. Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 Fed meeting. Source: CME FedWatch Rate cut expectations have historically been a bullish catalyst for risk-on assets and Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin rallied more than 20% ahead of the last Fed rate cut on Dec. 18, 2024. “Bitcoin surges back toward $95K, rebounding from bearish US GDP data,” said pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst BTCmoonmath in a May 1 post on X, adding: “Traders anticipate a Federal Reserve's easing and rate cuts in the future, despite a shrinking economy and low consumer confidence.” Focus now shifts to how the May 2 jobs report, which reveals how many jobs were added to the US economy in April, will impact the crypto market and, in turn, Bitcoin price. Related: Bitcoin ‘aging’ chart projects sixfold BTC price rally above $350K What next for Bitcoin price? Currently, $95,000 is the key level traders are watching, and many analysts believe that a sustained push through the resistance zone above this area opens the door for a swift move higher. “The price has recently surged above both key technical levels and is now attempting to consolidate within this zone,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain report. The market intelligence firm referred to the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) at $91,300 and the short-term holder (STH) cost-basis at $93,200. Bitcoin reclaimed these levels in the recent upward swing, highlighting the degree of strength behind the move. “These are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.” BTC/USD chart showing STH cost basis and 111-day SMA. Source: Glassnode “Bitcoin is ready to blast through $96,000,” popular analyst AlphaBTC said in his latest analysis on X. According to the analyst, a decisive break above $95,000 could see BTC move out of consolidation, with the next logical move being toward the $100,000 psychological level. “This is what I would like to see if Bitcoin can follow through today. A nice big squeeze into the low 100Ks.” BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTC Conversely, the analyst said that a drop below April 30 lows at $93,000 could see BTC/USD sink deeper toward the $84,000 and $88,000 range as shown in the chart above. Fellow crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said added that if price consolidates without rejection and keeps grinding upward, then that should position BTC for a move higher toward the $100K region, he explained to his followers on X. BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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