CoinDesk 2025-05-07 04:51:23

Forecasting Fed-Induced Price Swings in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP

It's the Fed day again, and traders are seeking cues on how much volatility this key event might spark. According to Volmex's implied volatility indices, major tokens could see price swings, but nothing out of the ordinary is anticipated. According to data source TradingView, Volmex's annualized one-day bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) stood at 49% as of writing, which equates to an expected 24-hour price swing of 2.56%. In other words, bitcoin could swing by $2,470 in either direction. As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $96,500. The expected daily volatility in percentage terms is determined by dividing the annualized percentage by the square root of 365, as the digital assets market is open 24/7. In traditional markets, conversion from annualized to daily involves the square root of 252 days. As of writing, ETH's annualized one-day volatility was 66%, suggesting a 24-hour price swing of 3.45%. Similarly, Volmex's one-day implied volatility index suggested a 24-hour move of 4.3% in Solana's SOL token. Volmex doesn't publish volatility indices tied to payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP. That said, the expected move in the token could be gauged from the forward implied volatility (IV) derived from options listed on Deribit. The forward IV for May 8 was 77.98% at press time, according to data source Amberdata. That equates to a one-day expected move of 4.08%. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision at 18:00 UTC, which will be followed by chairman Jerome Powell's press conference at 18:30 UTC. The central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged, but commentary on the economic outlook against the trade war backdrop and possibility of a rate cut in June could move markets.