Key takeaways: Ethereum has reclaimed a key level that preceded 100%+ rallies and triggered past altseasons. Altcoin market cap could surge toward $15 trillion if Bitcoin dominance repeats its post-halving drop. Despite bullish signals, ETH remains fragile, with $123B in supply near cost basis at risk of flipping into a loss. Ethereum’s native token, Ether ( ETH ), has reclaimed a key technical level that has historically preceded sharp price gains and marked the start of an “ altseason ” across multiple market cycles in the last five years. ETH price can double in the coming months The level in question is the mid-line (~$2,600) of the Gaussian Channel—a moving average-based band that tracks long-term momentum—on the 2-week chart. ETH/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView In 2020-2021, ETH rallied from $400 to over $4,800 after closing above the Gaussian mid-line. A similar move in late 2023 saw ETH climb from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year. In both instances, ETH quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band as momentum built. As of May 2025, that upper band sat near $3,200, making it the next key resistance. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July. Related: Ethereum price chart targets $4K as transaction fees hit 3-month high The next ETH pump may start altseason — analysts ETH price rally may further influence the broader altcoin market to rise alongside, according to market analyst Moustache, who cited the same Gaussian Channel fractal. Source: Moustache The combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020. Similarly, the altcoin market cap gained by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023. ETH/USDT two-week price chart. Source: TradingView The prospect of a 2025 altseason strengthens with a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern . In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies. With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days. BTC.D performance chart. Source: Wimar X Analyst Wimar X expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats. Ethereum metric warns about potential bull trap The largest portion of ETH’s market cap—around $123 billion—is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500, according to onchain data from Glassnode . ETH market cap by profit and loss. Source: Glassnode If ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would fall into a loss. That could increase the risk of panic selling, adding pressure to the market. So while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains shallow unless it can move further away from this cost zone. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
