Key takeaways: Bitcoin researcher Sminston With says BTC could gain 100% to 200%, with a cycle peak between $220,000 to $330,000. Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong cyclical volatility, contradicting the belief that its price swings are softening over time. Over $4 billion in BTC has been moved by long-term holders, warning of a price correction. Analysis from Bitcoin (BTC) researcher Sminston With implied that a BTC price peak is still 100% to 200% away from current prices. In a recent X post, With shared a Bitcoin price chart using a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96). The model suggests Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable, non-random pattern over time, distinct from the exponential growth models often applied to stocks and equities. Bitcoin power law fit analysis by Sminston With. Source: X The chart revealed that Bitcoin’s 365-day SMA typically peaks 2 to 3 times above the power law trendline in each market cycle. With Bitcoin priced at $110,000 on May 27, this model projects a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000. This forecast aligns with historical patterns, where Bitcoin has consistently overshot this trendline during bullish phases, offering an optimistic outlook for investors. A second graph in the post highlights Bitcoin’s price deviation from the power law fit, showing steady cyclical volatility without exponential decay in sustained peaks. This challenges the common belief that Bitcoin’s price cycles are becoming less extreme over time, indicating that the cryptocurrency’s volatility remains a defining trait, potentially leading to significant price swings over the next few months. In Q3 2024, With accurately predicted that Bitcoin would reach a six-figure price by January 2025, when BTC was trading around $60,000. The analysis examined each decaying peak by assessing BTC’s price at cycle highs. A decaying period in an investment cycle occurs when a strategy’s returns decline as the opportunity becomes widely adopted, culminating in a peak where the asset’s value drops sharply, leading to mass profit-taking. With’s quarter-on-quarter price targets for 2025, as outlined in this analysis, are summarized below. Bitcoin returns in 2025 based on decaying peaks. Source: Sminston With/X The researcher did warn that his study is based on just four market cycles and should be approached with considerable skepticism. Related: Bitcoin price will reach $130K or even $1.5M, top bulls say Bitcoin dips below $108K as old coiners move $4.2 billion in BTC Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have transferred $4.02 billion in BTC, the largest spending volume from the 1-to-5-year cohorts since February 2025, according to Glassnode . This surge, driven by the 3-to-5-year cohort ($2.16 billion), ranks fifth-largest in this cycle, following previous spending peaks like $9.25 billion in October 2024. The 2-to-3-year and 1-to-2-year cohorts contributed $1.41 billion and $450 million, respectively, to the total spent volume by age. BTC: Spent Volume by Age. Source: Glassnode As illustrated in the chart, LTH spending often aligns with price peaks, suggesting profit-taking, with BTC currently struggling to retain its position above $110,000. However, sharp price movements could follow if this movement coincides with an increase in BTC exchange reserves. Currently, the total BTC held on exchanges continues to decline. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been setting higher highs and lows since its price bottomed at $74,500, and each time after new highs, BTC has formed a sideways range before the next breakout. Bitcoin 4-hour chart analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView The ongoing correction mirrors this pattern, with recent local lows at $107,300, previously marked as local highs 10 days prior. However, a deeper correction could be imminent for Bitcoin. Based on historical data, anonymous crypto trader TXMC noted that Bitcoin could be nearing the end of a green weekly streak. The analyst said, “BTC Seven to eight consecutive green weeks are the longest streaks Bitcoin has managed since 2013, before it has pulled back or consolidated. Last week was #7.” Bitcoin’s weekly green candle streak analysis. Source: TXMC/X Related: Bitcoin sags below $108K as rate-cut bets evaporate before Fed minutes This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
