Crypto markets may be in the early stages of a longer-than-expected bull cycle, according to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal. In a video released Thursday, Pal compared the current market structure to that of 2017, when Bitcoin steadily climbed throughout the year before exploding in value by December. He noted that while the pattern is “spookily similar,” macroeconomic factors suggest this cycle could extend further — potentially into 2026. Pal bases his forecast on his “business cycle score,” a macroeconomic model used to assess where the global economy stands. Currently, the score remains below 50, indicating that economic momentum is still building. “It generally takes a while to climb up,” he explained, adding that this delay could stretch the crypto bull market timeline. Weakening Dollar Points to Longer Crypto Upside Potential One of the major indicators supporting Pal’s outlook is the weakening U.S. dollar. Since January 1, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped nearly 9%, now hovering around 98.77. Given the inverse correlation between crypto and the dollar , a continued decline in the greenback could further bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as both a speculative asset and a hedge against fiat devaluation. Bitcoin’s historical price data from 2017 supports Pal’s analogy. Starting the year at around $1,044, it reached $2,187 by the end of May and closed the year at $14,156 — a gain of over 1,200%. This pattern of gradual growth followed by an explosive Q4 rally mirrors what Pal sees in today’s market, although macro conditions may push the peak further out. He also noted that this cycle may resemble 2020 more than 2021, suggesting the current phase is still early in its growth curve. “The whole cycle got shifted because rates didn’t get adjusted, and the dollar moved sideways for a while,” Pal added. Middle East Bets Big on AI and Blockchain Another promising signal for the future of crypto, Pal said, comes from institutional interest in the Middle East. On a recent trip to the region, he spoke with Sovereign Wealth Funds and reported a strong, unified mandate across countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. “The mandate is AI and blockchain,” Pal said. He emphasized that these nations are not only interested in holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset but are also planning to build government infrastructure using blockchain technology . The post Raoul Pal Says Current Crypto Market Echoes 2017, Eyes Extended Bull Cycle into 2026 appeared first on TheCoinrise.com .
