Bitcoin (BTC) has remained stationary over the past 24 hours, holding above $107,000 to trade around $107,350. However, ETF demand and Fed policy cues could significantly dictate price action in the near term. BTC started the week with price swings and high volatility, as it fell below $100,000 before rebounding to reclaim $105,000 on Monday. Mid-Tier Investors Drive Activity An analysis by CryptoQuant contributor “Oinonen” has revealed a sharp jump in whale-level and mid-tier investors driving wallet activity on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. The analyst revealed that inflow data shows that wallets depositing between 10 and 100 BTC account for 40% of all Bitcoin inflows. These wallets are generally controlled by high-net-worth individuals or mid-sized institutions. Whale-level inflows make up 20% of the total inflows, suggesting that mid-tier investors are driving exchange activity. However, whale activity has also peaked in recent sessions. Bitcoin inflows of 10,000 BTC surged on June 16, making up 83% of total exchange inflows on the day, reinforcing earlier observations about increased whale activity over the past year. Binance’s overall deposit metrics also indicate a growing trend of larger average deposits rising from 0.36 BTC to 1.65 BTC . Most Bitcoin Treasury Companies Will Not Survive Death Spiral According to a report by VC firm Breed, only a few Bitcoin treasury companies can avoid the “death spiral” that could impact BTC holding companies trading close to the net asset value (NAV). According to the report, the health of Bitcoin treasury companies depends on their ability to command a multiple of their net asset value (MNAV). The report outlined a seven-phase decline of Bitcoin treasury companies, starting with a drop in the Bitcoin price, driving the company’s share price close to its actual NAV. This makes it harder for the companies to secure debt and equity financing critical to the asymmetric trade of converting the US dollar into a supply-capped appreciating asset. As credit access dries up and debt maturity looms, margin calls could be triggered, forcing the companies to sell BTC in the market and lowering the asset price. This could cause a consolidation of holding companies to be acquired by stronger firms, potentially triggering a market-wide downturn. The report stated, “Ultimately, only a select few companies will sustain a lasting MNAV premium. They will earn it through strong leadership, disciplined execution, savvy marketing, and distinctive strategies that continue to grow Bitcoin-per-share regardless of broader market fluctuations.” A death spiral could trigger the next crypto bear market. However, the report stated that most Bitcoin treasury companies finance their purchases with equity instead of debt, mitigating potential impacts to a certain extent. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its position above $107,000 over the weekend, registering marginal increases on Friday and Saturday. The price is marginally up during the ongoing session, trading at $107,681. Market watchers expect price action to pick up in the next week, potentially rising to new all-time highs. Analyst Michael van de Poppe predicted that Bitcoin is displaying an extremely bullish setup that could push it to a new all-time high as early as next week. Van de Poppe highlighted $110.5 as the crucial breakout level. BTC could surge to a new all-time high if it clears this level. While momentum is slow, analysts believe the bull run is not yet over. The MVRC ratio is at 2:2, significantly lower than peak levels, indicating there is room to grow. BTC’s next big move depends on whether it can break above the resistance at around $110,000. However, analysts like AlphaBTC believe it will take substantial momentum to flip this resistance level. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continued registering strong inflows. The week ending June 27 saw inflows skyrocket, with BlackRock’s IBIT registering weekly net inflows of $1,310 million, while the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) registered net inflows of $504.5 million. ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) registered net inflows of $268 million. US spot bitcoin ETFs extended their ETF streak to 14 sessions, recording over $2.9 billion in weekly inflows. BTC started the previous weekend in the red, dropping 1.19% on Friday, slipping below the 50-day SMA, and settling at $103,388. Sellers retained control on Saturday as the price fell 1.17% to $102,180. BTC plunged to an intraday low of $98,385 on Sunday as bearish sentiment intensified. However, it rebounded to reclaim $100,000 and settle at $100,982. BTC surged over 4% on Monday following the Israel-Iran ceasefire announcement. As a result, it reclaimed $105,000 and settled at $105,442. The price continued pushing higher on Tuesday, rising 0.66% to cross the 20 and 50-day moving averages and $106,000 to settle at $106,138. Source: TradingView Buyers retained control on Wednesday, with BTC rising 1.18% to cross $107,000 and settle at $107,393. However, it lost momentum on Thursday, registering a marginal decline and settling at $106,970. A marginal recovery on Friday saw BTC reclaim $107,000 and settle at $107,129. Price action remained positive on Saturday, rising to $107,339. The current session sees BTC up 0.51%, trading around $107,885. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
