Ripple’s bold move to apply for a US national banking charter has reignited debate over the future of XRP and the company’s ambitions to bridge traditional finance and blockchain. The application, confirmed by CEO Brad Garlinghouse, positions Ripple alongside Circle in seeking a federal trust bank license as Congress pushes forward with new stablecoin regulation. The outcome could reshape Ripple’s role in the financial sector—and determine whether XRP can finally break out of its long-standing price range. What Ripple’s Bank License Means If approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) , Ripple would operate under both state and federal oversight, joining a select group of crypto firms with such status. The charter would allow Ripple to: Expand services nationwide without needing dozens of state licenses Directly custody reserves for its RLUSD stablecoin with the Federal Reserve, if its master account application is also approved Deepen institutional partnerships by offering regulated custody, payment, and settlement services Enhance trust and compliance in the eyes of banks and large enterprises This move comes amid the passage of the GENIUS Act , which sets new standards for stablecoin issuers and puts the OCC in charge of regulating major players. XRP Price Forecast: Bulls vs. Bears The banking license news has already boosted XRP, which jumped 3–5% on the announcement and is trading near $2.30, testing key resistance levels. Technical analysts see a bullish pattern forming, with targets ranging from $2.65 to $3.04 if XRP can break above $2.34. Some models, factoring in institutional adoption and historical breakouts, suggest possible surges to $5 or even higher by year-end. Analyst/Model Short-Term Target Year-End/Long-Term Target Cointelegraph $2.65–$3.04 $5+ Finder Q3 Panel $3.06 $6.45 by 2030 Egrag Crypto $5.50–$11.75 $18 (cycle top) ChatGPT $10.91 (theoretical) - Bearish and cautionary voices point to significant hurdles: Regulatory delays: OCC and Fed master account approvals are not guaranteed and could take months or years SEC litigation overhang: Ripple’s unresolved legal battle with the SEC continues to cast a shadow Market selling pressure: Each price spike has historically led to profit-taking and retracements; whales and insiders may sell into rallies Competition and banking lobby resistance: Traditional banks may oppose Ripple’s entry, slowing the process RippleNet and Institutional Adoption: The Real-World Test While RippleNet and its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution have seen global adoption, especially in Asia and with partners like SBI Holdings, most US banks are not yet using XRP directly for settlement . However, the banking license could open doors for more regulated, large-scale institutional use—especially if Ripple can offer custody and payment services under federal oversight. On-chain metrics show XRP Ledger processing over 8 million payments weekly, with positive money flow and RSI indicators suggesting smart money accumulation. Yet, true institutional adoption remains the key to sustaining higher price levels and breaking out of the current trading range. Licensing Hurdles and What to Watch The process is rigorous and can be slowed by political, legal, or industry opposition Direct access to Fed payment rails would be a game-changer, but remains rare for crypto firms Any negative outcome could cap XRP’s upside, regardless of banking status Watch for whale activity and on-chain flows as price approaches resistance Ripple’s US bank license bid is more than a compliance move—it’s a high-stakes gamble that could redefine XRP’s future. Bulls see a path to $5 and beyond; skeptics warn of regulatory quicksand. As the OCC weighs its decision, all eyes are on the charts, the courtrooms, and the corridors of Washington.
