CoinDesk 2025-06-18 10:17:20

Bitcoin 'Accumulator' Better Fit for Corporates Than Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy, Research Suggests

Corporate adoption of bitcoin BTC is well-known, and most of it involves a classic buy-and-hold strategy, loosely analogous to the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. While investors of all kinds widely prefer DCA, new research by crypto options market maker OrBit Markets shows that since 2023, it has underperformed a structured product called an "accumulator," popularly known as "I Kill You Later" in traditional markets. "Our backtest results show that the accumulator strategy outperformed DCA over the past 2.5-year period," said Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at OrBit Markets, told CoinDesk. "Three-month accumulators delivered a 10% outperformance, while longer tenors did even better — six- and twelve-month accumulators outperformed by 13% and 26%, respectively." Goyal added that accumulators offer a disciplined, cost-effective approach to token accumulation, making them "a natural fit for crypto treasury companies' use case." Both DCA and the accumulator operate the same principle – stop timing the market. While DCA simplifies investing by spreading out purchases over time, the accumulator helps acquire coins at a discount in a structured setup and helps outperform DCA during bull runs. Primer on accumulator The accumulator is a time-structured product linked to the performance of an underlying asset with an upside knock-out barrier – level, which, if hit, terminates the structure. Here is how it works: An investor agrees to buy a certain amount of the underlying asset at a fixed, discounted price (the Strike) over regular intervals, such as daily or weekly, for a set period. The product runs through the pre-determined set period unless terminated early due to an early knock-out by the spot price rising to the barrier. Note that the investor has an obligation, not a choice, to buy the asset at the discounted strike price and must double the buy in case the spot price dips below the discounted strike. Example of BTC accumulator Consider a three-month accumulator where an investor commits to buy $1,000 worth of BTC every week at a strike price of $94,500, with a knock-out level of $115,000. The strike price of $94,500 is 90% of the current spot price of around $105,000. In other words, the investor is now mandated to snap up coins at a discount, assuming the spot price holds above the strike price of $94,500 and below the knock-out of $115,000. If BTC tops the knock-out level, the structure is terminated. If the price falls below $94,500, the investor doubles the weekly purchase to $ 4,000 at the same strike, i.e., $94,500 – there is no way out, meaning the investor ends up buying at a price higher than the prevailing market rate. (this is why it gets the nickname "I kill you later.") Hence, the accumulator is not suitable for day traders, short-term traders and speculators and may not necessarily outperform DCA in a bear market. Backtesting OrBit backtested a three-month BTC accumulator, spanning from January 2023 to June 13, 2025, assuming the investor continuously rolled into a new one upon reaching maturity or a premature knock-out event. Results show an average BTC acquisition cost of $39,035 for the accumulator, which is 10% lower than the DCA average purchase price of $43,329. The DCA involved investing a fixed dollar amount in BTC every week. Longer maturity accumulators of 6 and 12 months performed even better, achieving average costs of $37,654 and $32,079, respectively, outperforming DCA by 13% and 26%.

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