Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket are increasingly confident that the United States will pass the GENIUS Act — a bill designed to regulate payment stablecoins — with odds reaching 89% that it will be signed into law by 2026. The rise in betting interest followed the US Senate’s 68–30 vote in favor of the legislation earlier this week, with President Donald Trump urging the House to pass it quickly. At the same time, the market is signaling similar optimism, as shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group have soared over 530% since its June 5 IPO. Crypto Bets Surge as Trump Pushes GENIUS Stablecoin Act Toward Passage The cryptocurrency community is closely watching Capitol Hill — and betting on it. Following a decisive 68–30 vote in the US Senate earlier this week, online speculators on prediction platform Polymarket are putting their money where their convictions are: 89% of bettors believe the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, will pass through Congress and be signed into law before the end of 2025. Betting on the GENIUS Act as of Thursday (Source: Polymarket ) The bill’s progress marks a watershed moment for the US approach to regulating payment stablecoins. Designed to offer a clear framework for issuing and using fiat-backed digital assets like USD-pegged tokens, the GENIUS Act could legitimize and open the floodgates for widespread corporate and institutional adoption of stablecoins. President Donald Trump has emerged as a strong proponent of the GENIUS Act. In a public statement, he called on lawmakers to “get it to [his] desk” and signaled his willingness to approve the bill without any additional amendments. This statement appears to have been a turning point for market sentiment. According to Polymarket data, betting interest spiked less than 24 hours after the Senate vote, reinforcing confidence among traders that passage through the House and final presidential approval are both increasingly likely. But while Senate approval marked a major milestone, the bill now faces new political hurdles in the House of Representatives. Although Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, it's unclear whether the GENIUS Act will pass unaltered or if Democratic lawmakers — and even some Republicans — will push for amendments that address potential conflicts of interest, including Trump’s family’s alleged links to World Liberty Financial and its stablecoin, USD1. A similar amendment aimed at scrutinizing these ties was defeated in the Senate before the final vote. Potential Ripple Effects on Tech and Finance If passed into law, the GENIUS Act could dramatically reshape how value moves in the digital economy. Analysts and insiders suggest that major US companies — including Apple, Google, and Meta — are monitoring the bill closely. Senators have already sent formal inquiries to Meta regarding whether the company would consider reviving its stablecoin ambitions if the regulatory path becomes clear. Some in the crypto industry have even gone so far as to call the GENIUS Act a potential “New York Stock Exchange moment” for stablecoins. The bill’s legal clarity could allow tech giants and financial institutions to issue their own tokens for settling transactions, payroll, and cross-border payments — with the US dollar remaining at the center of it all. Adding further intrigue to the week’s legislative developments, the House is also preparing to consider the CLARITY Act, which is a companion bill that outlines which federal agencies will have jurisdiction over various classes of digital assets. That legislation, which passed out of committee last week, may be bundled into negotiations over the GENIUS Act or serve as a framework for broader crypto regulation should stablecoin adoption skyrocket. The GENIUS Act, in its current form, limits stablecoin issuance to regulated entities, requires full collateralization of token supplies, and subjects issuers to oversight by either the Federal Reserve or state-chartered banking authorities. Critics argue that without additional consumer protections, the law could create loopholes for political or financial manipulation — particularly given Trump’s vocal support and familial connections to the industry. Betting on Policy — Not Just Prices While platforms like Polymarket are not crystal balls, they do offer a glimpse into collective expectations from crypto-savvy users. And with an 89% probability priced in, it’s clear that the community is largely betting on passage and presidential approval within the next 18 months. However, these bets also show the broader financialization of politics in the crypto era, where traders are not just speculating on tokens, but on the outcome of congressional votes and regulatory decisions. Polymarket, itself a subject of regulatory scrutiny following a controversial $7 million wager on a Ukraine mineral extraction deal, has remained popular among crypto users for its real-time, market-based assessment of major geopolitical and financial events. If the House votes in favor and Trump follows through on his promise, the GENIUS Act could mark the single most significant legislative milestone for digital assets in US history — and an inflection point for the stablecoin industry globally. Circle Stock Soars 530% Since IPO as GENIUS Act and Stablecoin Momentum Fuel Investor Frenzy Just over two weeks since its much-anticipated initial public offering, Circle Internet Group (NASDAQ: CRCL) has become the breakout star of 2025’s public markets. The stablecoin issuer’s shares closed Wednesday at $199.59, a stunning 33.8% daily jump from its prior close and a jaw-dropping 530% surge from its IPO listing price of $31 on June 5. The company also posted record-breaking volume of 63.5 million shares traded, according to Yahoo Finance , and climbed an additional 6% in after-hours trading. The price rally is being fueled by a perfect storm of bullish developments for the digital asset sector — chief among them the US Senate’s recent passage of the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill to regulate fiat-backed digital currencies like Circle’s USDC. The legislation has ignited a new wave of investor enthusiasm not only for Circle but for the broader stablecoin and crypto-fintech industries. Circle Emerges as Market Bellwether for Stablecoin Sector Founded in 2013, Circle is best known for issuing USD Coin (USDC), the world’s second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin behind Tether’s USDT. With a market cap of $61.4 billion, USDC now accounts for roughly 25% of the $243 billion stablecoin market. USDC’s footprint continues to expand. The token recently launched on the XRP Ledger , a move expected to boost cross-chain liquidity and access for Ripple users. In parallel, Coinbase Derivatives, a close institutional partner of Circle, revealed plans to support USDC as collateral for US crypto futures trading by 2026. “ Circle is becoming the Apple of stablecoins,” said one analyst at Galaxy Digital. “Their visibility, compliance-first approach, and expanding utility make them the most institutionally trusted stablecoin issuer — and the GENIUS Act could solidify their moat.” The stock’s incredible post-IPO performance appears to reflect this sentiment. CRCL is not just trading like a hot tech stock — it’s becoming the benchmark for institutional confidence in crypto’s regulated future. The Senate’s 68–30 approval of the GENIUS Act on Tuesday is widely seen as a regulatory watershed moment. The legislation would define clear standards for US stablecoin issuers, mandate full collateralization of tokens, and establish federal or state-level licensing requirements. While debate in the House remains ongoing — with concerns about Trump-linked firms like World Liberty Financial and its USD1 token — the market is treating the Act’s momentum as a signal that US policymakers are finally serious about supporting blockchain-based financial innovation. The ripple effects were immediate. Alongside Circle’s rally, Coinbase stock (COIN) also surged 16% on Wednesday, likely due to its close ties with USDC and its own efforts to grow stablecoin integrations across products. The IPO Floodgates May Be Opening Circle’s success may do more than lift its own valuation — it could set the stage for a wave of crypto companies eyeing US public markets. Digital asset exchange Kraken and fintech firm Gemini have both hinted at IPOs in 2025, and Circle’s spectacular debut will likely strengthen their cases to institutional investors and regulators. Meanwhile, interest from non-crypto giants is also on the rise. Retail titans Amazon and Walmart are rumored to be exploring their own stablecoin initiatives, potentially using a GENIUS Act framework to create branded digital dollars for supply chain payments and consumer rewards programs. Even geopolitical finance has become intertwined with the stablecoin surge: according to a prior report from The Block, World Liberty Financial’s USD1 token was used to settle a $2 billion investment from an Abu Dhabi sovereign fund into Binance, underscoring how stablecoins are now intermediating massive global deals.
