Summary Marathon Holdings is a top crypto miner with substantial Bitcoin holdings, yet its stock has moved sideways despite Bitcoin's rally. MARA is undervalued, trading at 1.34x its Bitcoin value, with significant upside potential as Bitcoin prices are expected to rise in 2025. MARA boasts the highest hash rate and strong operational performance, making it a best-in-class miner with diversification efforts in Bitcoin lending. Despite risks in the competitive mining industry, MARA's strategic position and bullish technical indicators make it a Strong Buy. Thesis Summary Marathon Holdings ( MARA ) is one of the largest publicly traded crypto miners and despite the substantial Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) rally, the stock has been moving sideways in the last year. The Trump trade has materialised in many ways, though it hasn't translated to miners yet. But it's still early days, and there are plenty of things to look forward to during Trump's presidency. This is why MARA is a great stock to buy right now. I expect Bitcoin to head higher in 2025, and MARA is one of the most undervalued miners in the sector. I rate the stock a Strong Buy. The Trump Trade That Wasn't While most of the market has risen since the election, MARA and most of the crypto miners, are an exception. TSLA, BTC and MARA (TV) Bitcoin has risen from under $80,000 to over $100,000, and while MARA had an initial rally, it now sits, not far from where we were on November 6th. There's Still Plenty Of Upside Despite this, there are still plenty of catalysts, which I believe the market hasn't fully priced in. For starters, the potential implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is still possible. There are a lot of ways this could play out, though perhaps announcing that the US will be buying Bitcoin is the least likely. Nonetheless, Trump has shown, with actions and words, (yes I'm talking about his latest crypto token launch) that he is very much pro-crypto. We have four years for further positive news to surface. On top of that, the Bitcoin cycle still suggests higher prices are in store for 2025. BTC cycle (TV) Based on previous cycles, the Bitcoin price could top, if it tops, sometime around September, leaving us with almost nine months of upside. Marathon; Best-In-Class Crypto Miner Bitcoin miners face specific challenges that Bitcoin doesn't and that can explain their underperformance. They are in competition with each other, which intensifies, they can suffer outages, and there can be quite a lot of volatility when they fund themselves through share offerings. But everything that makes miners more risky, also gives them more upside potential, at least if you pick the right one. There are a few reasons I like MARA over most of the other miners. Treasury Position Among publicly traded companies, MARA holds the largest Bitcoin treasury position, with the exception of MicroStrategy ( MSTR ). MARA holds over 44,893 BTC, which it isn't only mining, but also buying using convertible notes . Yes, MARA has adopted the MSTR model, but the market has not rewarded the company in the same way. Valuation But I don't think the market will be able to ignore this that much longer. MARA trades at around 1.34x its Bitcoin value, and only 2x book value. This is low when we consider that MSTR trades at 2x its Bitcoin value. How long until MARA actually begins to trade at fair value? It wouldn't take much more Bitcoin appreciation at the rate the company is accumulating Bitcoin. Operational Performance This leads me to my third point. MARA is one of the best miners in terms of operations. It has the highest hash rate, 53.2 EH/s, and mined 249 Bitcoin in December. On top of that, I like the fact that MARA has taken some actions to diversify its revenues by mining other cryptos or engaging in Bitcoin lending. Technical Analysis Looking at the technical chart, we have yet to see convincing signs of a breakout: MARA TA (TrendSpider) MARA has been consolidating in a range for the last year. However, we could point out that in the last month, we formed a bullish RSI divergence as the stock bottomed, and the daily MACD is flipping bullish. Ultimately, based on fib extension, MARA could be worth around $60. I think this also makes sense from a valuation standpoint. MARA's Bitcoin value could increase closer to 2, while the company could easily double its BTC holdings in the next year. Risks The risks of investing in MARA are the same as with any other crypto miner. Mining is a competitive industry, and there's even an element of chance involved in it. Arguably, MARA's diversification efforts could also prove counterproductive in the next year, if we continue to see Bitcoin outperform altcoins. Final Thoughts All in all, I like MARA at this price and given the outlook for Bitcoin. I rate the stock a Strong Buy.
