Kalshi, a New York-based exchange and prediction market located in Lower Manhattan, New York City, is in the news with its hiring of Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board. The platform has gained traction in the booming field of prediction markets, allowing users to speculate on the probability of real-time events. The company stands out among its offshore competitors because it operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, the company has seen regulatory problems recently. The CFTC recently threw out Kalshi’s plans to offer contracts on election outcomes with a decision that is currently under appeal. Kalshi appears to be taking steps to move past the minor setback with the evolution of its platform, the expansion of its offerings, and perhaps, its decision to bring Donald Trump Jr. on as a strategic advisor. The move has already given Kalshi extra visibility, and that attention might help it close the gap with Polymarket in the predictions market. Why Donald Trump Jr.? Donald Trump Jr. recently achieved Republican elite status thanks to the central role he played in returning his father to office. It is unsurprising that Kalshi wants him to bring that Midas touch, and maybe influence, to its platform. Don Jr. seems to have the ears of the president-to-be, seeing that he lobbied vigorously for his friend J.D. Vance to get a seat at the table. Don Jr. will also bring his wealth of experience in business and media to Kalshi. In addition to his new advisory role, he serves on the board of Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind the conservative social media platform Truth Social. Kalshi may have just taken a strategic step ahead of Polymarket by snagging Don Jr. when they did. As stated earlier, the company has been facing many regulatory huddles, which is a side effect of creating a product in a heavily regulated industry. However, with Don Jr.’s endorsement, doors could open for the platform within conservative circles, where skepticism of traditional media and enthusiasm for alternative platforms are gradually becoming the order of the day. In a statement, Trump Jr. expressed enthusiasm for the potential prediction markets have to disrupt traditional mainstream media and alter how people engage with information. “Prediction markets are a powerful tool for democratizing information and enabling individuals to make informed bets on real-world events,” Trump Jr. said. His role at Kalshi will involve advising on strategic partnerships, expanding the company’s user base, and navigating the platform’s growth as it competes in a heavily regulated industry. It may also be a way to safeguard the company from future regulation, especially with Don Jr., the president’s oldest son and republican superstar, heavily invested in the platform. In recent times, presidents have gotten away with showing leniency and favoritism toward family members. Case in point: Hunter Biden received a full pardon because his father just happens to be the POTUS. Kalshi is going all in on the US markets Polymarket cannot operate on US soil, and US residents are prohibited from using the platform “officially.” Still, platforms like Polymarket present stiff competition for Kalshi because they have a first-mover advantage as they are located offshore and operate outside the reach of US regulators. By aligning itself with Don Jr., Kalshi expects to leverage his influence to draw attention to its regulated, legally compliant platform that caters specifically to US residents. Kalshi has been around since 2018, but it will now renew efforts to stay relevant. It got a slice of the action in November because a US appeals court lifted a freeze on it in October, allowing the site to list contracts that allow for bets on the election. On the night of the election, over 500,000 people were using Kalshi simultaneously — both to place bets and to monitor the election results. Bettors invested $476 million into the presidential race’s outcome on Kalshi while Polymarket’s site says people spent more than $3.6 billion betting on the race even though US users weren’t legally allowed to participate. If Kalshi succeeds with US residents, it will become the go-to platform for a liquidity-rich market. “Nothing is as salient as the presidential election,” Xavier Sottile, the head of markets at Kalshi says. Kalshi is already adding contracts for the outcomes of the second Trump administration. It has options on whether Musk or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given Cabinet positions and the removal of taxes on tips. It even has events about Trump getting impeached for a third time. The bets on these pale in comparison to the election bonanza, but Sottile says there are enough of them and enough interest for Kalshi to seize the smaller moments. The race for supremacy Polymarket’s success in predicting Trump’s win has thrown prediction markets to the forefront of event forecasting. Many believe they are very accurate, and for good reasons. People are more decisive with their money, so they pick outcomes they think will happen, not just ones they want to happen. “When they actually put their money behind what they say, they’re putting themselves out there,” says Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. He believes that prediction markets will last a long time and only get bigger. Similar platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have already been popping up. In late October 2024, Robinhood started offering election betting, and there’s also PredictIt, which is a platform operated by Victoria University in New Zealand focused specifically on US politics. The race is on, and every platform will be working hard to keep its users satisfied with various updates and upgrades. Kalshi has started the year hot by signing on Don Jr. and is well on the way to becoming a US sweetheart where prediction is concerned. From Zero to Web3 Pro: Your 90-Day Career Launch Plan
