Since mid-December, retail investors have been amassing Bitcoin at a speed not seen since the crypto bull market of late 2020 and early 2021. Investigating this recent phenomenon, we find that retail accumulation really took off around the time of the recent market lows in November and December and that retail investors are currently accumulating BTC even faster than a year ago and, in fact, at a pace that hasn’t been exceeded since the late 2020/early 2021 bull market. This rekindling of retail interest in Bitcoin, coming at a time when the cryptocurrency market is grappling with ongoing volatility and with the recent bear market clearly now behind us, is a clear sign that the confidence of recent retail investors remains very much intact. Since mid-December, retail investors (≤1 $BTC ) have been accumulating #Bitcoin at an accelerated pace, stacking an average of 10,627 BTC per day – 72% faster than the past year's average (6,177 #BTC /day): https://t.co/K3Q9Dlu7jn pic.twitter.com/U0u6gIxXeB — glassnode (@glassnode) February 7, 2025 Retail Investors Lead the Charge: A Strong Shift from November This substantial uptick in retail activity stands in marked contrast to the pattern of retail investor behavior during November 2024, when Bitcoin pushed past the $100K threshold. At that time, many retail investors seemingly took advantage of the price spike by selling off portions of their holdings—profiting, one would assume, from what appeared to be a market moment of peak strength. This recent alternative uptrend, however, suggests that retail investors are now professing to view Bitcoin more as a long-term, fundamentally sound store-of-value proposition, rather than as a momentarily flaming, short-term speculative asset. It is accumulating Bitcoin at a rate that is hard to ignore. This is significant, particularly because retail investors usually have a much smaller presence in the market compared to institutions and larger players. Yet here they are, pushing into Bitcoin at 72% faster than last year’s pace—an act that is, in aggregate, a very apparent vote of confidence in both the original crypto and its future. And that’s with all that’s been going on in the space since summer. Whales Distribute Bitcoin, Increasing Sell-Side Pressure Retail investors are steadily accumulating Bitcoin, but on the other side of the trade, “whales”—investors holding more than 1,000 BTC—have been distributing their Bitcoin to exchanges at an ever-increasing rate. Since November 24, 2024, these large holders have been offloading, on average, nearly 33,000 BTC per day. That’s roughly 9 times their own annual average prior to their recent selling spree, which has been creating by far the largest and most consistent “sell-side” pressure the Bitcoin market has seen in years. The conduct of whales straying from the retail trend implies that they might be responding to more sweeping market conditions, such as recent ups and downs in the price of Bitcoin and the mood surrounding it. In contrast to the retail investors who have been steadily purchasing Bitcoin, the whales have been using the recent price surge as an opportunity to sell off a significant portion of their holdings. If they are not actively seeking to drive the price down, which is certainly a possibility, their price decline and market uncertainty anticipation could very well be leading them to liquidate massive portions of their BTC holdings. Bitcoin Dominance Rises, Capital Rotation Accelerates While the retail and whale sectors are moving in different directions, Bitcoin market dominance is soaring. Since the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen from 38% to 59%, which means a substantial net capital rotation into Bitcoin to the detriment of other digital assets. What does this say about the state of investor confidence in not just Bitcoin, but in the whole digital asset space? Bitcoin dominance has surged from 38% to 59% since the FTX collapse, reflecting a net capital rotation into BTC over other digital assets: https://t.co/I1rZLhGP9n pic.twitter.com/00WQ6Tboa8 — glassnode (@glassnode) February 7, 2025 Bitcoin’s dominance surge is not just new money flooding into the space; it’s a sign that investors are favoring the stability and reputation of Bitcoin—more than ever—over the potential risks associated with altcoins. Result: Altcoins are growing slower. Over the same time frame (the lows of 2022 to now), we saw Bitcoin grow 5.3 times in market cap from $363 billion, to $1.93 trillion. Meanwhile, altcoins grew at a much-more-modest 4.7 times from their low point, to $892 billion in market cap. Significant Movement from Long-Term Holders A critical new development in the Bitcoin market is the transition of over 20,000 BTC from long-term holders’ wallets in the last 96 hours. This shift could very well change market dynamics because it has historically been the case that long-term holders are the most steadfast Bitcoin investors, the ones who ride out the periods of volatility. When it is the long-term holders’ turn to start moving coins, it usually means either portfolio repositioning or imminent market opportunity (often cited as the reason for the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple). This transition could also represent an entry point—and a signal for new investment opportunities—for investors who are currently sidelined. Outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs Raise Concerns Though retail accumulation in Bitcoin has been robust, the recent outflows from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have caused some consternation among investors. As of February 6, the total net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs since the start of the year was $140 million. Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) was the biggest offender, with $103 million having left that fund, and no doubt many Heaven’s Gate figures were drawn during the put option writing that led to that fund’s availability. Still, Fidelity appears to be the only player with such active imitative undermining occurring. Over 20,000 #Bitcoin $BTC have moved out of long-term holders' wallets in the last 96 hours. This shift could introduce new opportunities! pic.twitter.com/RqTqteq5Ed — Ali (@ali_charts) February 7, 2025 The outflows from Bitcoin ETFs come at a time when the market capitalization of Bitcoin has been growing by leaps and bounds, which raises questions about just how hungry institutional investors are for the digital asset. Accumulation by retail investors shows no signs of slowing, yet that strong narrative is clouded by the series of unfortunate events that seem to have befallen the Bitcoin ETF this year and last. If the ETF is seemingly cursed, what does that say about the institutional investors that are supposed to be it? On February 6, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was $140 million, and the outflow of Fidelity FBTC was $103 million. The total net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF was $10.6519 million, and the net inflow continued for 6 days. https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 7, 2025 A Dynamic Market with Contrasting Trends The Bitcoin market right now is moving in two opposite directions. Retail investors are amassing large amounts of Bitcoin, @ investopedia.com demonstrating a healthy “HODL” attitude. Whale activity has also been noticeable, with large Bitcoin holders appearing to distribute their Bitcoin, increasing selling pressure and possibly creating a Bitcoin market that is more price-volatile than what we saw in 2020. In the middle of all this is Bitcoin’s price. Despite these major trends, Bitcoin’s price continues to reflect the kind of stability and overall bullishness we’re coming to expect when we look at the price charts. The market seems to be at a crossroads with long-term holders starting to move their BTC and institutions pulling money out of Bitcoin ETFs. These outflows suggest that retail investors are still quite confident in Bitcoin, while the big players in the market (both institutional and whale) are seemingly recalibrating their strategies. The evolution of Bitcoin continues, and by all appearances, it’s still looking good. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news ! Image Source: beibeinside / 123RF // Image Effects by Colorcinch
