The growth of Bitcoin , the most prominent cryptocurrency, has been impressive since it touched its latest cycle low. At the moment, it sits 826 days removed from that low. What has drawn some attention of late, though, is a recent price drop of about 16%, taking Bitcoin back down beneath its all-time high (ATH) level. While the price drop has obviously garnered some “Uh-Oh!” headlines, it is worth recognizing that Bitcoin market is remaining stable at this time and presently appears to be undergoing a “Alas! A healthy correction!” scenario compared to what has happened in past cycles. A Closer Look at Bitcoin’s Current Correction and Historical Performance Bitcoin’s price drop yesterday constituted a correction of 16% from its all-time high. That’s above the average drawdown of 8.54% we’ve seen for Bitcoin during this current market cycle. And while we don’t really “like” to see prices dropping at all, at least it’s nice that this particular drop didn’t come close to the maximum drawdown of 26.25% we saw Bitcoin hit earlier this cycle. This cycle is the least volatile when we look at it historically, compared to the past four. It’s not super well-defined, but most people from the industry who follow Bitcoin say that it has been pretty much established that we have had three previous bull runs in Bitcoin, from 2011 to 2013, from 2012017 to 2012018, and then the most recent one from 2020 to 2021. 2011-2013 Cycle: Bitcoin saw a mean drawdown of -19.19% during this period, with a max of -49.45%. This time in Bitcoin’s life was known for not only its early explosive growth but also its equally steep corrections. – 2015-2017 Cycle: Within this cycle, the average maximum drawdown was -11.49%, and the maximum drawdown was -36.01%. These figures suggest that while Bitcoin was beginning to achieve massive public goodwill, it also continued to experience extremely volatile price behavior. 2018-2021 Cycle: This cycle experienced an average drawdown of -20.41%, suffering the greatest decline at -62.62%. Bitcoin’s price was much more volatile, with the price surging and then crashing. The phasing of this price movement was much more rapid than in previous cycles, testing the durability of both support and resistance levels in the process. Nonetheless, the current cycle of Bitcoin—from 2022 on—has seen a significant break from these patterns. The cycle has brought us the least volatile price action of all observed cycles, with an average drawdown to date of just −8.54%. Even taking into account yesterday’s sharp move, Bitcoin remains a low-volatility asset compared to pretty much any previous stretch of time in its price history. Bitcoin’s Current Price and Its Comparison to Previous Cycles The price of Bitcoin is a central topic for discussion among analysts and investors. Since the low point of this current cycle, which occurred 826 days ago, Bitcoin’s price has not only rebounded from that low, but it has also shot up to about 5.48 times its value at that low. This current “not quite bull” market has hardly been a straight shot up, but to understand how well (or poorly) Bitcoin is doing these days, it’s best to stack its performance against previous performances at similar “not quite bull” market moments: – 2011-2015 Cycle: At 826 days post-cycle low, Bitcoin had seen an astonishing 284.28x rise. This was in the early days of Bitcoin when it was not well known, and its pricing was highly erratic. 2015-2018 Cycle: This timeframe witnessed a 7.26x increase in Bitcoin at the same moment, marking the very initiation of instituting Bitcoin into the engrained monetary structure of society. It was during this epoch when Bitcoin began to grasp the noteworthiness of a vaster audience and to shade itself with the colors of legitimate institutional interests. – Cycle 2018-2022: This cycle has produced a price appreciation of 16.86x over 826 days thus far, with a maturing market and large players entering the space. Yesterday's price drop took $BTC price -16% below ATH, placing the correction above this cycle's avg. drawdown of -8.54% but still below the max drawdown of -26.25%: https://t.co/0nYH7vme1B pic.twitter.com/NiYAwE0ZG2 — glassnode (@glassnode) February 26, 2025 The present cycle may see a 5.48x growth factor that looks anemic by comparison with many of the previous cycles. But it’s essential to understand that as we assess the current state of Bitcoin, we are looking at a largely stabilized, globally recognized, and integrated digital asset. With international financial systems in place, one can reasonably expect the overall growth of Bitcoin and its ecosystem to be less dramatic than was often the case back in the halcyon days of quiet scooping up and mining in 2010 and 2011. The Maturing Bitcoin Market The current cycle of Bitcoin testifies to its evolution into an asset class. Dips in the price and gains in the price no longer bear the hallmarks of the extreme fluctuations of earlier years. This change suggests a trend toward something more stable, as at least some of the forces that used to drive the price up or down have stopped acting upon it. But what has brought us here? In spite of downturns that have occurred recently, the price of Bitcoin seems to be in a relatively healthy spot. Many experts consider such price corrections a normal part of the bull run that Bitcoin finds itself in and even part of the “price discovery process.” Peng asserts that “many experts suggest that the bull run we find ourselves in currently is a direct result of institutional buying.” Many now consider Bitcoin to be more stable than ever before, yet its performance is still under close observation as it confronts an array of ongoing regulatory, technological, and market developments. Compared to its previous life cycles, the currency’s relative volatility signals something new—something that might lead one to consider, even more so than before, the currency’s potential as an investable asset. In this view, a less volatile Bitcoin equates to a more mature hedging vehicle and increases the currency’s potential for becoming an even better store of value. Conclusion: A Milder, Yet Stronger Bitcoin Bitcoin’s recent price correction might be taken as a sign of the cryptocurrency’s well-known and much-cursed volatility. But, according to the analysts at the investment firm Oppenheimer, that might be a misleading impression to take away. They argue that Bitcoin is much more stable over the long term and is “evolving” to be even more so. In a report published this week, Oppenheimer’s team points out that the average drawdown—when the price of an asset drops at least 10% from its recent peak—seen during the four major price corrections in Bitcoin’s current bull market is just 22%. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news ! Image Source: Photo by Traxer on Unsplash // Image Effects by Colorcinch
