One year after Bitcoin’s 2024 halving event, market observers are applauding BTC’s strength in the face of economic headwinds. The halving, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, appears to have triggered not only scarcity-driven optimism but also speculation around a faster market cycle. Bitcoin Holds Strong Despite Global Tensions Since the May 2024 halving, Bitcoin has surged over 33%, even as fears surrounding a global trade war between the U.S. and China have escalated. “So, even though Bitcoin’s showing resilience, I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for a stronger green light before they jump in,” said Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken. Cardozo believes institutional players could influence the timing of this cycle. “For the 2024 halving in May, that puts the bottom around Q3 this year and a peak mid-2026, but I think we might see things move a bit sooner because the market’s more mature now with more liquidity.” Monetary Policy Could Shape BTC’s Next Leg Up Cardozo also pointed to potential monetary policy moves as a catalyst. A U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, possibly in May or June, could inject additional liquidity into markets and help push Bitcoin higher. The halving mechanism itself is a built-in feature of Bitcoin’s monetary policy, designed to reduce supply and maintain scarcity. This supply shock, when paired with heightened demand, has historically preceded bull runs. Institutional Demand and ETFs Alter the Playing Field Another analyst, Vugar Usi Zade of Bitget, suggested the market cycle might be accelerating due to institutional adoption and ETF activity. “With growing scarcity triggered by the halving, Bitcoin will likely retest its all-time high if it breaches the $90,000 mark in the coming weeks,” he explained. “While the halving offers a good basis for growth based on demand and scarcity, the timeline for impact on price can vary over time.” Zade emphasized that Bitcoin’s growth remains closely tied to broader financial markets and investor sentiment. New All-Time High Came Quicker Than Previous Cycles Recent price action supports the idea of a compressed cycle. According to data from trader Jelle, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $109,000 on January 20—just 273 days after the 2024 halving. That’s a significant acceleration compared to previous cycles: the 2021 halving took 546 days to peak, and the 2017 cycle needed 518 days. As the ecosystem matures with institutional players, ETFs, and evolving market dynamics, many analysts believe Bitcoin may no longer follow its traditional four-year pattern. Instead, the cryptocurrency could be entering a new era of accelerated, liquidity-driven growth.
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