As Bitcoin has climbed back above the $100,000 level, investors are tempted to liken the rally to the short-lived rallies in January, but recent data and market dynamics suggest that this time the rally is more grounded. Financial conditions, one of the basic indicators that determine the risk appetite of the markets, present a picture in favor of Bitcoin this time. While the dollar index (DXY) fell by 9% from 109 in January to 99.60, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate fell from 4.8% to 4.52%. These softening conditions are creating a more favorable environment for risky assets. Although 30-year bond yields have risen above 5%, this development is perceived positively for inflation hedge assets such as gold and Bitcoin. The total market value of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, such as USDT and USDC, broke the record by reaching $151 billion. This is an increase of about 9% from the average level of $139 billion in the December-January period. The presence of a large capital reserve that can be invested is considered a positive signal for Bitcoin and crypto markets. Bitcoin’s recent rally from $75,000 has largely been driven by directional buying by institutional investors via spot ETFs. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures rose to $17 billion, the most since February, but is still below the $22.79 billion peak in December. In comparison, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $42.7 billion, surpassing the $39.8 billion level in January. In the past, during Bitcoin’s peaks, there was speculative excitement in memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB). However, there is currently no significant movement or bubble effect in such altcoins. This shows that the market is moving more cautiously this time. There is demand for long (bullish) positions in Bitcoin’s perpetual futures market, but funding rates are well below December highs, suggesting leveraged positions are not overdone and the market is not “heating up” yet. It is not investment advice. Continue Reading: Can Bitcoin Stay Above $100,000? What Does Data Say? Here Are the Details
