Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart now say they’re over 90% sure that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve applications for spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year. They have pinned their optimistic outlooks on recent positive engagement with the SEC, which is considered an encouraging sign for ETF issuers. “Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart wrote in a post on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.” Approximately two weeks ago, Balchunas and Seyffart pegged the odds of XRP, Dogecoin, and ADA funds securing the green light by the end of 2025 below 90%. The latest update shows that the analysts’ estimated odds of the SEC approving XRP ETF products now stand at 95% amid regulatory wins . Dogecoin and Cardano ETF proposals have a 90% chance of obtaining the regulatory go-ahead. The analysts also raised estimated approval odds for other altcoin ETFs, including Polkadot (DOT) and Avalanche (AVAX), to 95%. They also ascribed a 95% likelihood of approval to funds holding Litecoin (LTC). SEC Signals Pro-Crypto Shift The SEC earlier this month requested that spot Solana ETF issuers amend their S-1 registration statements, signaling that approvals could be imminent, as ZyCrypto reported . So far, the SEC has only approved spot crypto ETFs for the top two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). A handful of major asset managers are awaiting clearance from the Commission to list different spot crypto ETF filings. The deluge of applications reflects US President Donald Trump’s efforts to soften the SEC’s regulatory stance toward digital assets since returning to the White House in January. Moreover, Paul Atkins, who officially took over as SEC chair in April, has promised a more lenient approach to digital assets. Approval of these pending filings could unlock institutional capital for the respective altcoins, amplying their demand and potentially pushing prices higher. While approval timelines remain unclear, they would mark a step toward mainstream adoption for these alternative cryptocurrencies.
