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Seeking Alpha 2024-11-05 23:51:21

U.S. stock index futures up as traders monitor election results, first polls closed

U.S. stock index futures up as traders monitor election results, first polls closed

U.S. stock index futures were up marginally, slightly extending a rally from the regular trading session, as the first polls of the presidential election closed. Wall Street and the world waits with bated breath for the culmination of the race to the White House. As of 1851 ET, S&P 500 futures ( SPX ) were +0.11% , while Nasdaq 100 futures ( US100:IND ) were +0.04% . Dow futures ( INDU ) were +0.14% . With the first polls closing in Ind. and Ky., exit polls conducted by media outlets showed voters expressing concerns about democracy and the economy. The three major stock indexes earlier staged a broad advance during market hours, with each ending more than 1% higher. U.S. equities have been remarkably resilient to the usual volatility that an election year can bring. The 2024 election season has been full of twists and turns and has, at times, been extremely divisive. History shows that the benchmark S&P 500 ( SP500 ) for the most part gains in a year after an Election Day. "Irrespective of who wins the presidency, strong seasonals favor stocks from now to year-end, especially since a blue sweep is not in the cards. The most likely scenario is a mixed Washington, with leaders on both sides of the aisle needing to compromise to get things done. However, a red sweep is still possible, which will help equities via pro-growth policies that likely incorporate aggressive onshoring ambitions, lower corporate taxes, and a subdued regulatory landscape," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said. "In conclusion, however, bond yields are critical to watch as investors and traders examine the inflationary, deficit and activity impacts of incoming policies," Torres added. The inexorable bull run in U.S. stocks did take a bit of a breather the last two weeks, as some caution finally appeared to seep into sentiment ahead of the election outcome. Of note, the Cboe Volatility Index ( VIX ) - widely seen as Wall Street's fear and volatility gauge - posted its highest closing level pre-Election Day since 1990 outside the bear market in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic crash in 2020. Looking at the fixed-income markets, the benchmark 10-year yield ( US10Y ) was down marginally to 4.29%, while the shorter-end, more rate-sensitive 2-year yield ( US2Y ) was up nearly 3 basis points to 4.20%. For more, see how Treasury yields have done across the curve on the Seeking Alpha bond page. In moves across other assets, WTI crude oil futures ( CL1:COM ) were +0.81% , while Brent crude futures ( CO1:COM ) - the international oil benchmark - were +0.59% . Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) was last +2.9% at $69,771.77. Dear readers : We recognize that politics often intersects with the financial news of the day, so we invite you to click here to join the separate political discussion . More on the markets Should We Stay On The Bull Train? November FOMC Meeting: With Election In Focus, Fed May Opt For A 'Safe' 25 Bps Cut Fed Reaches $2 Trillion In Quantitative Tightening As It Cuts Rates Nvidia retakes world’s most-valuable company title from Apple as market cap climbs How NOT To Trade Election Day

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