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Seeking Alpha 2024-11-06 18:21:02

Dow up 3% as risk assets rally after Republicans take White House, Senate in elections

Major U.S. equity averages surged on Wednesday, as Republican Party leader Donald Trump won re-election to the White House. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) shot up +1,400 points, or +3.3% , and hit a new intraday high. The Nasdaq Composite ( COMP:IND ) +2.7%, and the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) +2.3% , each on course to their best sessions since early August. Equities leapt as Trump secured the 270 electoral votes required to win the U.S. presidency. Republicans took control of the Senate, but were still fighting Democratic Party candidates to hang onto the House of Representatives. “Markets love certainty and with what appears to be a sweep (in U.S. government), markets are getting certainty from that. You're starting to see, especially higher-risk assets like small caps and growth-oriented names, really taking off,” Jeff DeLarme, president of DeLarme Wealth Management, told Seeking Alpha in an interview Wednesday. The Russell 2000 ( RTY ) measure of small-cap stocks climbed +5.6% . The U.S. Dollar Index ( DXY ) hit a nearly four-month high, +1.6% to 105.03. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) soared past the $74K level for the first time ever. In the bond market, the 30-year yield ( US30Y ) was up 2 basis points at 4.64% as Treasury announced the results of its $25B auction of the bonds. The high yield was 4.608% vs. 4.389% at October's sale. The bid-to-cover ratio rose to 2.64 from 2.50. The yield earlier Wednesday hit 4.660%, the highest since late May. Other Treasury yields had steeper spikes as prices dropped. The benchmark 10-year yield ( US10Y ) was up 13 basis points to 4.42%, and the shorter-end, more rate-sensitive 2-year yield ( US2Y ) was up 8 basis points to 4.27%. “Just looking at today, because of this certainty [in election results] I think the market is picking up on, it seems like that might bode well for the economy – meaning that rates are going to have to climb higher to incent fixed-income investors to forgo making equity investments or other projects,” DeLarme said. Back in stocks, eight of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ( SP500 ) rose. The Financials sector +6% while Real Estate, Consumer Staples and Utilities each slid. Most of the Magnificent 7 group of tech behemoths including Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Alphabet ( GOOG ) rose. Shares of Tesla ( TSLA ) +14.8% , with the EV maker, led by Trump campaign supporter Elon Musk, seen as a major beneficiary under the Trump administration. "Financial markets have moved to price a victory by former U.S. President Trump. However, markets appear to assume that the campaign rhetoric (specifically around deportations and tariffs) will not fully translate into policy," UBS' Paul Donovan said. Traders will next throw their attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting that concludes Thursday. Expectations are still a near-certainty of a quarter-point rate cut. But the odds of a similar cut in December have fallen below 70%, according to the CME FedWatch tool . Looking further out, fewer cuts are priced in for 2025, with traders now betting on a terminal rate for that year of 3.75%, just 1 full percentage point from current levels, reached by June. Among other individual movers, Super Micro Computer ( SMCI ) dropped 24% after the embattled artificial intelligence server maker reported preliminary fiscal first-quarter results and offered up an update from its independent special committee. Dear readers : We recognize that politics often intersects with the financial news of the day, so we invite you to click here to join the separate political discussion . More on the markets Should We Stay On The Bull Train? November FOMC Meeting: With Election In Focus, Fed May Opt For A 'Safe' 25 Bps Cut Fed Reaches $2 Trillion In Quantitative Tightening As It Cuts Rates JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon said to rule out joining Trump administration Nvidia retakes world’s most-valuable company title from Apple as market cap climbs

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