Summary Bitcoin's recent break of its all-time high and surpassing $80,000 signals strong momentum, supported by positive market sentiment and increasing Bitcoin dominance. According to the Stock-to-Flow model, Bitcoin’s position in the red-orange zone after the halving is a historically positive signal. RSI nearing 70 suggests overvaluation, but historically for Bitcoin, it doesn’t signal a downward trend. BTC's overcapitalization and concentrated supply may limit gains, but $100K isn’t as far off as it seems. Here we go again, talking about the father of crypto, during an important phase of its momentum. The recent break of the all-time high (ATH) and surpassing the $80,000 mark could be a good moment to take a deep breath and start thinking deeply about what Bitcoin is aiming to do next. Where is the price of BTC/USD heading? Not really sure. Because despite various apocalyptic or conspiracy theories, is BTC/USD truly on its way to $100,000? Let's look at some statistical and on-chain data to see where we are and where Bitcoin might go next. What is happening in the crypto world? It may seem obvious to say now, but Bitcoin is currently in a bull market . However, what seems clear now was not so evident just two weeks ago, when there was fear in the market (neutral zone of Fear & Greed Index) and a potential distribution phase for BTC/USD. Something like this. BTC/USD (TradingView) Then, Trump’s unexpected win in the election , along with talk of a new wave of deregulation and his surprising alliance with Elon Musk , quickly shifted the mood in the crypto market. Suddenly, what felt like caution and fear turned into excitement. According to the CMC's Fear & Greed Index , we’ve moved into the "greed" territory now. And that’s worth discussing. In my view, Bitcoin breaking its recent all-time high, while the market is feeling optimistic, is a strong signal: it shows the breakout was welcomed with open arms and positive energy. CMC Fear & Greed (coinmarketcap) Additionally, there is still no sign of an altseason, because Bitcoin dominance is increasing, while altcoin dominance is decreasing. So, despite BTC/USD surpassing its all-time high (ATH), the market interest in buying Bitcoin has not faded. Bitcoin Dominance (coinmarketcap) This is also evident when analyzing Bitcoin's "Long Term Holder Supply," which is decreasing, even though there hasn’t been a significant sell-off that would indicate whales are taking profits. Long Term Holder Supply (bitbo) This trend also seems to be confirmed by the derivatives market , with a strong growth in open interest among the largest crypto firms. BTC Open Interest Statistics (coinalyze) A significant short liquidation occurred just before BTC/USD touched the $80,000 mark, in the $79,000 zone, totaling around $300 million. Aggregated Liquidation (coinalyze) A Deep Dive into the Stock-to-Flow Model So, where is BTC/USD heading now? To answer this, I’d like to introduce the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) chart , which, in my opinion, is one of the best tools for navigating the complex world of Bitcoin. We are currently at a very interesting point because the halving has already taken place , and the chart's color has shifted into the red zone, moving towards the orange area. From a statistical perspective, this zone is worth paying close attention to. In previous bull runs, the breakout of the previous all-time high (ATH) always occurred within the red-orange zone after a halving. I’ve been in the crypto market since 2015, and every time we’ve reached this area, it seemed almost impossible for Bitcoin to find the momentum to push higher. Yet, each time, a strong catalyst emerged. But, returning to the thread, according to the Stock-to-Flow model, and backed by statistical evidence, the breakout of the previous ATH in the red-orange zone of the Bitcoin halving cycle is typically a good signal for Bitcoin. Stock to Flow (Bitbo) Technical Perspective What’s the target price for BTC/USD? That’s a great and intriguing question. If you have a definite answer, please let me know … But we can make some educated guesses. We are already said that, previous bull market was difficult to predict because it happened after BTC/USD had already risen significantly. This is evident when looking at a classic 14-period RSI on the 1-week timeframe. Each time the RSI entered the overbought zone and people started to believe that BTC/USD was overvalued, Bitcoin would counterattack and push higher. Ok … first thing to note: Currently, BTC is approaching the 70-point level on the RSI, which I find to be an intriguing signal. BTC/USD, 1W (TradingView) But if a new bull run is coming, where could it be headed? During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin pumped over 8x, and in the 2020 bull run, it pumped 4x. Following this pattern, we might expect a smaller multiplier this time, indicating a potential contraction in the extent of the bull market. This trend can be explained by the increase in market cap and the growing supply of BTC, which have led to a decrease in Bitcoin's annualized volatility. Bitcoin Annualized Volatility (Dune (@21co)) In my opinion, we shouldn’t expect a bull run similar to those we’ve seen in previous cycles. The target set by the Stock-to-Flow model, which suggests a BTC/USD price of around $300,000, seems unrealistic at this point. However, I do believe that the widely anticipated target of $100,000, mentioned by many in the crypto community, is becoming far more achievable. RISK The risk remains the same as always, aside from potential issues like a U.S. political crisis or an economic recession : the extreme concentration of BTC supply in a few addresses. The table below illustrates this situation perfectly. It’s not just our capital at risk but also the decentralized nature of Bitcoin itself. For instance, if centralized exchanges (CEX) like Binance, with a CEO like CZ,well known for his "playful" control, hold more than 2% of the Bitcoin supply (based only on publicly declared addresses), a new risk emerges: a "Binance risk," not just a risk to the Bitcoin network. Top 100 Bitcoin Holders (Dune (@21co)) The issue becomes even more pronounced when we consider another fact: over 82% of the BTC supply is held in fewer than 200,000 addresses. This could be alarming, as it’s often unclear who these holders are and what their intentions might be with their assets. It’s definitely something worth thinking about. Bitcoin distribution (bitinfocharts) Conclusion In conclusion, BTC/USD appears to be well-positioned at the moment. With a combination of strong technical momentum, bullish sentiment analysis, and a favorable statistical outlook, I believe a "BUY" rating for this crypto pair is well justified.
