Summary Bitcoin is reaching new all-time highs, approaching $80,000, and it's time for pragmatic investors to consider taking profits as enthusiasm peaks. We are nearing my price targets, with Fibonacci extensions suggesting Bitcoin could reach $102,000, implying a potential 50% rally from current levels. Implement a strategic exit plan by scaling out at key price targets, monitoring momentum indicators, and considering historical cycle patterns post-halving. Despite being a long-term Bitcoin bull, I am downgrading from Strong Buy to Buy and may further downgrade to Sell as targets are met. Thesis Summary All eyes are on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ), the world’s premier cryptocurrency, as it makes new all-time highs and breaks above the $80,000 level. Crypto enthusiasm is reaching a fever pitch, and we are getting close to the targets I laid out years ago. With everyone palpably excited to own and buy Bitcoin, it’s time for the pragmatic investor to begin to take some profit. Be fearful when others are greedy. In my last article, I discussed why Bitcoin was due for another rally as liquidity conditions improved . However, as we fast approach my price target I am beginning to consider exiting. It's still early, but for this reason, I am downgrading to a Buy. Below, I lay out my exact price target for Bitcoin and my strategy for exiting. The Blow-Off Top We currently have a blow-off top-developing in Bitcoin. Crypto has been a well-known part of the Trump trade for some time, but even crypto enthusiasts may be surprised by just how rapidly everything is mooning. Bitcoin is making new all-time highs, and this time it’s not alone. Altcoins are also catching a bid, with meme coins like DOGE ( DOGE-USD ) leading the way. Miners are having double-digit gains and MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) seems not to know what a red day is. The excitement is not only palpable but measurable. BTC Interest (Google Trends) The number of Bitcoin searches has exploded since early October. Crypto Fear And Greed Index (Alternative.me) We can also see that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has now entered extreme greed, though we are still not quite at maximum greed levels, with a score of 76. Now that Bitcoin has no resistance above, I expect we could continue to rally perhaps as much as 25% from here in a matter of weeks. Still, in terms of the broader crypto cycle, we are definitely getting close to the end. Bitcoin Price Targets I’ve had some clear price targets for Bitcoin over the last year, and while we’re not quite there, we are very close. Bitcoin weekly chart (TrendSpider) We’ve zoomed out to Bitcoin’s weekly chart to see things clearly and simply. There are three key things to point out. Firstly, we have the Fibonacci extensions of the decline from the previous cycle's Bitcoin top to the bear market bottom. Note that the 1.618 extensions, what is often referred to as the golden ratio, projects us towards $102,000, which is now around 30% away from today’s price. Secondly, we have a green trendline going from the previous two tops, which we can see actually intersects with the 1.618 ext. In fact, this intersection from a time perspective could happen in the next 2-3 months. Lastly, Bitcoin has made a very clear five-wave impulse since its November lows, with a final wave 5 now seemingly confirmed and underway. Let’s zoom into this wave 5. Bitcoin daily chart (TrendSpider) We’ve now also measured the decline in wave 4 which we can see in the first chart. What’s very interesting, is that we get some significant overlap in the fibs at both $90,000 and then $100,000. The 1.618 ext on the more micro level projects us towards $89,000 which is also where the 1.236 ext of the larger decline, projects us. This would be, in my opinion, an initial point of reversal, and would likely mark the top of wave 3 in this final impulse to new highs. Ultimately, though, I expect we will get very close to $100,000 at least. When Should You Sell Bitcoin? Here’s the thing, though, price targets are just that. We can’t know exactly how things will pan out. However, PT is a key element in developing a strategy and exit plan. There’s an argument to buy and hold some Bitcoin forever, that’s also part of the strategy, but if you got into Bitcoin near the lows, you may soon be looking at a 7x return. Nothing wrong with taking some profit. Here are three indicators/strategies to consider when building your Bitcoin exit plan. Scale-Out At Key PT BTC PT Exit Strategy (TrendSpider) Using our PT from above, we can build a price range within which we want to begin selling. I personally like to scale out by having a few limit orders ready as we make our way up. For example, we could consider selling around 50% of our position Lastly, we can let our “core” position of 20% ride much higher or even hold it forever. This strategy is shown above with a sell-zone triangle, which illustrates how to slowly sell and de-risk your position Bail-Out As Momentum Fades Bitcoin EMAs (TradingView) Another option is to wait for a much more clear signal of momentum fading. For example, back in 2021, selling when the 20-week EMA crossed below the 50-week EMA would have saved a lot of pain. Notice also that this coincided with a huge divergence in the weekly RSI. Bitcoin RSI divergence (TrendSpider) We have a similar set-up today. This is another indicator that momentum is slowly waning, and often an early warning sign of a sell-off. Timing Is Everything BTC LT Cycle (TradingView) Lastly, if we look at Bitcoin’s history since its inception, we can clearly see that Bitcoin tends to top around 12-18 months after the halving event. The last halving took place on April 19, 2024, which means that, if history repeats, then Bitcoin would likely top between April and August of 2025. So, one could also commit to selling around this period. With that said, the fact that this is a well-known cycle means we could see it pre-empted to an extent, not unlike the pre-emptive rally we saw before the halving this time. Risks Bitcoin has a lot of tailwinds, with liquidity increasing and institutional adoption. But we still have to deal with a lot of volatility. Furthermore, if the economy enters a recession, I think Bitcoin will fall with the rest of the market. In this regard, higher inflation and possibly higher long-term rates could also derail the Bitcoin narrative. If we saw a bearish cross of the EMAs before our PT is reached, then we would have to reconsider our strategy. Final Thoughts In conclusion, I continue to be a long-term Bitcoin bull. However, we can’t deny that this is an asset that is volatile, moves in cycles and will sell off hard if liquidity conditions worsen. This is now a good time to begin taking some profits and think about an exit strategy, not the time to go all in. For this reason, I am downgrading from Strong Buy, to Buy, and will likely downgrade even further to a sell as we reach my price targets.
