The TOSHI token has seen a truly remarkable 30-day price action—up over 600%—that, to many in this space, looks and feels very much like a pump. This price movement has, of course, attracted the attention and now the speculation of both retail traders and institutional investors alike. But is it really something we should be buying into and be bullish on? Or are we being set up for another in this series of “last chance” tops that we should be avoiding on our way down? Even though the number of new addresses being created every day is increasing, the overall user count isn’t. The only people left using the token tend to be trading in large amounts. These “whales” are, by and large, the only TOSHI users left. Retail traders using TOSHI in any significant way don’t exist, which means the token’s current price pump (if it even can be called that) isn’t being fueled by any significant grassroots revival, which makes us wonder how far this uptrend can go. Whale Games Behind the Price Rally? Even though the daily number of new TOSHI addresses has skyrocketed, a closer look at the seven-day averages shows that the number of new active addresses is actually under 10. So, what does this mean? Does it mean that TOSHI truly has not achieved mass retail adoption yet? Because the constant barrage of new TOSHI price all-time highs suggests otherwise. But, this could be true. TOSHI price hikes could be the result of concentrated trading, with a relatively small group of influential holders often referred to as TOSHI whales. This trend is further supported by transaction data. Even though the total daily transaction volume and frequency have risen slightly, there has not been a significant increase in activity among existing users of retail. The increase in transaction amounts is most noticeable in instances where the sum is over $100,000. This level of activity suggests that the big players in the market are the ones securing perceived profits and that there is not widespread participation in the market at this point in time. The number of small-scale transactions is further underlining this situation. On Sunday, for instance, there were just 13 recorded transactions under $1,000, which is a clear sign that the retail trader just isn’t there right now. If the average investor isn’t in this market, then the current price surge is even more suspect than it would be otherwise. After all, when prices increase without more stupid retail on the other side of the trade, is the price surge anything more than whale market-making? A Glimmer of Hope: Balanced Token Distribution Even though there’s whale-driven activity that might not be good for TOSHI holders, there’s a bright side. Unlike many other memecoins and high-volatility tokens, TOSHI’s token distribution is relatively balanced. True, the whales control the majority of the supply, but at least the concentration of ownership isn’t as extreme as it is in some other speculative cryptoassets. This indicates that if retail traders start entering the Bitcoin market in larger numbers, a more organic price discovery process could be in Bitcoin’s future. With the potential for price discovery to take place, TOSHI could go from an asset largely acted upon by whales to one in which a much more dispersed set of participants plays their part in acting upon and within the asset. What’s Next for TOSHI? With TOSHI’s price having risen 600% in just one month, all eyes are on whether the token can maintain its newfound momentum or if whale-driven market activity will lead to sharp price corrections. Whether the token’s future trajectory leans more toward continued ascent or correction will be determined by several key factors: 1. Retail Uptake – Should a larger number of small traders take part, TOSHI could experience a much more stable, much more organic growth model compared to the current variant. 2. Profit-Taking by Whales – If large holders begin to sell off their positions, a rapid price correction may ensue. 3. On-Chain Activity – An ongoing upsurge in transaction volume from a variety of wallet addresses would suggest that the market is moving toward equilibrium. At present, TOSHI is one of the most thrilling and unpredictable tokens in the marketplace, but investors should be careful. The token lacks a solid retail following, which means that any current upward price movement could just be a flash. Watch on-chain data closely to see if TOSHI can keep its recent upward momentum or if it’s on track to test support in a more bearish environment. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any projects. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news ! Image Source: maximusnd/ 123RF // Image Effects by Colorcinch
