Summary Since my initiation, BTC has outperformed the S&P 500 by +67% vs. +10%, but has been ranging between $91,000 and $109,000, currently at $95,641. U.S. states are considering establishing Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, potentially leading to significant BTC purchases, reflecting growing institutional acceptance. UAE's Mubadala Investment Company invested $460 million in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, signaling potential similar moves by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. The Fort Knox episode could also highlight BTC's potential against its gold rival. Despite recent pessimism, these developments present a massive opportunity for investors to initiate or strengthen BTC exposure. Introduction Since my initiation , Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has performed by +67% versus +10% for the S&P 500 (SPX). However, for about three months now, BTC has been ranging between $91,000 and $109,000. As I'm writing this article, it stands at $95,641. TradingView In this logic, my last recommendation published on January 7, 2025, and which was my 3rd update on the matter, hasn't performed well. Since I published it, BTC has been down -1.2% while the SPX has been up +3.48%. In the article that I invite you to look at, I mentioned a major catalyst that I expect to support BTC in 2025. Despite these positive triggers I have identified, it is undeniable that the current range we are sitting in has brought a wave of pessimism among many investors. As a matter of fact, the BTC fear and greed index is now back in neutral territory. alternative.me In this article, I'm going to explain why I believe this situation represents a massive opportunity for investors to initiate or strengthen their BTC exposure. U.S. States Adoption Recently, we've seen many bills related to the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve introduced in multiple U.S. states. As of today, 22 bills have been introduced in 22 different states. These states will soon have the responsibility to decide if they want to have the possibility to invest in BTC. Bitcoinlaws The process is long and can take anywhere from a few months to over a year. After a bill is introduced in the state legislature, it gets debated in the first legislative committee. Then, it moves to the first chamber, where it is debated and voted on. If approved, the bill goes to a second committee in the other chamber for review. There, it is debated and voted on again. If both chambers pass the bill, it is sent to the governor for signing into law. According to VanEck , if voted across all states, this could potentially represent 250 000 BTC purchased in the future. This is almost 1.15% of the total supply and 1.3% of the circulating supply. VanEck In my opinion, these calculations must be considered carefully, as there is a high probability that not all states will cross the line and adopt BTC. However, I still interpret this trend very positively. It proves BTC has come a long way and is now even being considered for an investment envelope that requires the highest level of scrutiny: state funds investing citizens money. UAE - The First Country Checked Off my 2025 Bingo list... and More Will Join The Party In my previous article , I shared my 2025 Bingo list, where I identified countries, I expected to embrace BTC this year. Among them, I notably mentioned Switzerland, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and South American countries like Argentina. A few days ago, an interesting news report came out. According to Yahoo Finance : Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala Investment Company, disclosed a $460 million stake in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, making it the seventh-largest holder of this ETF. In my opinion, this is just the beginning. Now that the UAE has crossed the line, I expect another country to get in the game soon: Saudi Arabia. Why? Because these countries have historically competed, especially when it comes to investing. A few examples: both have aggressively deployed capital in the technology sector, both have fought to become the financial hub of the Middle East, and even in sports and entertainment, the UAE was the first to make significant investments in European football clubs, while Saudi Arabia followed by acquiring Newcastle United. In my opinion, with Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund now investing in Bitcoin ETFs, it's only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia follows. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund manages over $900 billion in assets, making it the 6th largest sovereign wealth fund globally. BTC aligns with the nation's goal of diversifying beyond oil. That's why I believe this country could be a potential buyer, and a game-changer for BTC. Visual Capitalist What About the US Strategic Reserve? First, an important element to consider: the U.S. still holds 207,189 BTC. There was a non-zero probability that the Biden administration would sell BTC holdings before Trump took office, but it didn't happen. This is very positive, as it suggests a potential bipartisan consensus on the matter. Since Trump has taken office, we haven't had any specific news about the so-called U.S. strategic reserve. However, another positive development has emerged. On February 3rd , President Trump signed an executive order for the creation of a Sovereign Wealth Fund. This comes along with the task assigned to Crypto Czar David Sacks to study the feasibility of a Bitcoin reserve or a digital asset stockpile. In a sense, I believe these two elements are related and could both serve as positive catalysts for BTC. It seems plausible that the U.S. sovereign wealth fund, which is expected to total $5.7 trillion in assets, could also invest in Bitcoin, just like the UAE did. Trump has given 90 days to the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of the Treasury to create this fund, so we will have news soon enough. In my opinion, these two developments represent real catalysts that will support BTC and strengthen its reputation as a reserve asset. Speculation Rising over Fort Knox Built in 1930, Fort Knox serves as the U.S. Bullion Depository, housing 147 million ounces of gold, worth approximately $425 billion. As gold prices rise and the Department of Government and Efficiency ((DOGE)) shakes up the U.S. administration, public interest in Fort Knox's actual reserves has surged. Due to growing distrust over how poorly U.S. taxpayers' money has been managed over the past decade, many are questioning whether the reported gold reserves are accurate. This skepticism has only been reinforced by multiple sources alleging that the last official audit of Fort Knox took place back in 1974. Twitter You might be wondering: how does this relate to BTC? If an audit is indeed conducted and reveals that gold reserves are missing, I have the conviction that it will reignite the gold vs. BTC debate. The idea of gold as the ultimate store of value would take a hit, and BTC, with its verifiable and transparent supply, could emerge as an even stronger alternative. In a world where trust in traditional assets is eroding, BTC's appeal as a decentralized, non-manipulable form of wealth storage could gain significant traction. To close this article, I wanted to share this data that, I believe, is crucial. It shows how the ETF and financialization of BTC represent a real advantage for BTC holders, driving demand and making BTC an even scarcer asset over the long term. Indeed, as time goes by and halving makes it even harder to mine BTC every four years, the new BTC supply continues to decrease. Meanwhile, ETF demand appears strong even a year after their launch. As you can see, despite BTC's poor price action on a YTD basis, net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs have outweighed new supply in 2025 by a factor of 2.68x. Bitwise Meanwhile, BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decrease and currently stand at 2.23 million. Coinglass Conclusion Despite the current price action disappointing many BTC holders, I still believe there is significant upside potential in 2025, with major triggers and catalysts on the horizon. I consider the current level attractive, and I remain particularly optimistic about BTC's future. Periods of consolidation often test investor patience, but history has shown that Bitcoin tends to move in strong cycles, with explosive price action following phases of accumulation. Given the current setup, I have the conviction that we are in such a phase, making this an attractive time to accumulate for those with a long-term view. The braves will be rewarded. I remain optimistic about BTC's future and maintain my Strong Buy rating.
