Summary Bitcoin's current cycle suggests a potential parabolic phase, with previous cycles indicating a rally until about October 2025. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD on Bitcoin's weekly chart signal a new bullish uptrend, reinforcing the breakout from a bull flag formation. Trade deals and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could act as catalysts, boosting Bitcoin's price and equities by increasing liquidity and reducing market uncertainties. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF offers a low-cost, liquid, and tax-efficient way to invest in Bitcoin, with a 0.25% expense ratio and high trading volume. Every Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) cycle so far had a parabolic phase at the end of the cycle. Bitcoin's monthly chart suggests that this parabolic phase might be underway. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) offers an easy way to benefit from bitcoin's price appreciation during this possible sharp rally. I explained in my previous bitcoin article that the halving cycles have been relatively consistent in length of days. What I mean by this is that the period between the bitcoin price bottom and the price top lasted exactly 1,064 days in the last two cycles. The first cycle lasted a little longer at 1,148 days. This current cycle wouldn't reach 1,064 days until October 2025. So, there is likely more room to go for this cycle. The recent price action reinforces this possibility. Bitcoin's Technical Perspective Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Weekly Chart w/ RSI and MACD ( tradingview.com ) Bitcoin's weekly chart above shows the recent bullish price action in April and May. The purple RSI line (middle of the chart) increased above 50, which indicates a new bullish uptrend. This is almost confirmed by the blue MACD line (bottom of the chart) which looks like it is about to cross above the red signal line. The MACD's histogram bars turned from red to pink and could be about to turn green. If the blue MACD line crosses above the red signal line and the histogram bars turn green, this would be a strong confirmation of a new uptrend on the weekly chart. Bitcoin appears to be beginning to break out of a bull flag formation. The flag portion was formed from December 2024 through March 2025 as a period of consolidation. The all-time high of $109,000 will be a key level to watch. It is possible that the price tests that level and pulls back before it is surpassed. The finalization of trade deals is a likely positive catalyst for the price of equities which could also drive the price of bitcoin higher. Once actual deals between the United States and other countries are finalized, it will eliminate the uncertainties that have been weighing on markets. The recent deal between the U.S. and the United Kingdom announced on May 8, 2025 is a recent example of this. When the deals are known, companies can make necessary adjustments as needed and move forward. The U.S. and China trade deal will probably have a significant impact on markets once it is finalized. Another possible catalyst in the coming months is the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut the Federal Funds Rate. Lower rates would likely increase liquidity, which could be positive for bitcoin and equities. This will depend on the inflation data in the coming months. The effect of tariffs could keep inflation high and reduce the probability of one or more rate cuts this year. Bitcoin Monthly Chart w/ RSI and MACD ( tradingview.com ) I zoomed out to bitcoin's monthly chart above. I did this to show the extremes of where the price tends to top out at according to the purple RSI indicator in the middle of the chart. The RSI tends to reach extreme levels above 90 before topping out. The last cycle had a double-top and formed a bearish divergence as the price made a higher high while the RSI made a lower high. Bitcoin is currently just below the overbought level of 70 on the monthly chart. So, there could be plenty of room for the price to move higher before it tops out in this cycle. I realize that there is no guarantee that bitcoin will behave similarly this cycle, but it does appear to be setting up that way. What Happens During the Parabolic Phase? Bitcoin tends to have its strongest rallies during the parabolic phases of its halving cycles. This is the acceleration phase of the cycle. This is where the poles of the bull flag formations are formed. This acceleration phase could last about 6 months. So, if this current cycle lasts about the same length as the previous 2 cycles, April looks like the 1st month of this possible parabolic phase. A 6-month rally would take us through September 2025. That is consistent with the theory that this rally may end around October. I'm sticking with 10x the bottom of the cycle for my price target. This would be 10 x $15,000 as the approximate price bottom, placing the peak price for this cycle at about $150,000. This target is based on the 2.618 Fibonacci level, which looks reasonable as compared to the current price. Why Ride Bitcoin With IBIT? I view IBIT as a good way to invest or trade bitcoin. IBIT trades just like an ETF, so it can be easily bought and sold just like any stock or ETF. IBIT can be traded within a ROTH IRA, eliminating the tax burden when selling it. IBIT has a low expense ratio of 0.25%. This is significantly lower than some other bitcoin ETFs such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) which has an expense ratio of 1.5% or the ProShares Bitcoin ETF ( BITO ) with its 0.95% expense ratio. IBIT is also the most liquid bitcoin ETF as it has over $64 billion in assets under management [AUM] with a high volume of over 36 million shares traded daily. This liquidity enables traders to quickly convert shares to cash. It also tends to have tighter bid/ask spreads so that trades can be entered and exited easily. Final Thoughts The current price action for bitcoin has been bullish in April and May. This could be the beginning of a strong multi-month rally. However, there is no guarantee that this will occur. Investors should be aware that the price could fail to surpass the all-time high of about $109,000. If the price does sustain a rally above $109,000, then a parabolic phase to my target of $150,000 by about October 2025 is more likely.
