Bitcoin hovered near the $103,000 support level throughout the day, trading in a narrow range with $104,000 serving as immediate resistance. The broader crypto market briefly rallied to an intraday high of $3.52 trillion before pulling back to stabilise around $3.46 trillion by late Asian trading hours. Market sentiment, as measured by the benchmark Crypto Fear and Greed Index, improved following cooling inflation data. At press time, the index stood at 73, firmly in greed territory. Yet, altcoins had a slow day, with most tokens shedding some of their weekend gains, while a handful of top altcoins managed to stay in the green. Why is Bitcoin stuck? Bitcoin’s climb to a daily high of $104,836 came on the back of fresh macroeconomic optimism, led by cooling inflation data that lifted market sentiment. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation easing to 2.3% year-on-year, coming in softer than expected and giving traders a reason to breathe. With the reading well within the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone, expectations of further rate hikes receded, fuelling demand for risk assets like Bitcoin. Adding fuel to the fire was a breakthrough in US-China trade relations. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice President He Lifeng signed a tariff-reduction deal in Geneva, slashing reciprocal tariff rates to 10% from punishing highs of 145% and 125%. The agreement officially takes effect today, May 14, kicking off an initial 90-day window of lowered tariffs. It marks a turning point after a prolonged period of economic tension, sparking renewed confidence among investors. Yet, despite these tailwinds, Bitcoin has remained stuck below the $104,000 mark. The rally lost steam as profit-taking emerged at key resistance levels. Santiment’s Realized Profit/Loss metric spiked on Tuesday, indicating that many holders are securing gains, increasing short-term selling pressure, and capping upside momentum. Will Bitcoin go up? Some market trends suggest Bitcoin could still break higher if macro and on-chain dynamics align. On-chain data points to a tightening supply backdrop. According to analyst Miles Deutscher, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to just 14%, a seven-year low. Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher · Follow $BTC supply on exchanges just hit a 7-year low at 14%.What happens when you combine a highly sought-after asset with continuously reducing supply? 📈 8:30 pm · 14 May 2025 136 Reply Copy link Read 56 replies With fewer coins left on trading platforms, the data points to increased investor confidence and a reluctance to sell, both of which can ease downward pressure. One key momentum indicator has now flipped bullish, adding weight to the case for a breakout. Bitcoin’s weekly MACD histogram has crossed above zero, signalling a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. It’s the first time this has happened since late October, just before BTC began its run to new all-time highs. As can be seen from the chart below, the last five bullish MACD flips led to significant upside, with only one false signal in March 2022. The latest crossover also follows BTC’s bounce off the 50-week moving average, another setup that previously marked strong moves higher. BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView. Based on this setup alone, trader Sensei speculated a long-term price target of $250,000. Sensei @SenseiBR_btc · Follow $BTC IS GOING TO $250,000 7:45 pm · 14 May 2025 234 Reply Copy link Read 24 replies Still, not all analysts are aligned on the immediate outlook. Roman, a crypto trader known for his macro calls, believes the current range-bound action could mark a continuation of the trend, provided Bitcoin consolidates above $103,000. In his view, a break above $108,000 could open the door to $120,000 in the near term. Meanwhile, fellow analyst Hardy is eyeing a potential retest of the $98,000 zone as a more attractive entry point. He noted this level aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone from the recent leg up, often viewed as a key area of support during bullish trends. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Hardy Others are looking beyond short-term levels and drawing parallels to previous market cycles. Crypto analyst Moustache pointed to a repeating parabolic structure that has historically preceded major Bitcoin rallies. In his view, BTC is currently retesting a multi-month trendline, just as it did in 2017 and 2020 before going vertical. He suggested that if history repeats, a parabolic curve could follow, with Bitcoin entering a steep acceleration phase similar to past cycle tops. However, pseudonymous trader Byzantine General did not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin moving sideways in the near term. “If BTC remains calm, then alts can do their own thing for a bit,” the analyst noted, suggesting that stability in Bitcoin could allow capital to rotate into the broader market. For now, Bitcoin bulls need to break past the $104,000 resistance for the current rally to continue in the absence of any immediate catalysts. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $103,465, down 0.6% on the day. Slow day for altcoins Over the past 24 hours, the altcoin market cap saw a small bump of 1.78%, bringing it close to $1.43 trillion. Despite the gains, the Altcoin Season Index is still sitting at 30, which means Bitcoin is still leading the market and largely steering where altcoins go from here. Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, briefly touched a little above $2,700 but later settled at around $2,578, roughly a 1% gain from the previous day. Other top altcoins like XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Tron (TRX) also saw minor gains between 0.5% and 3%. Raydium (RAY) stood out with the biggest gains of the day, rising 12.6%. It was followed by Walrus (WAL), which climbed 9.7%, and Pi (PI), which rose 7.4%. Source: CoinMarketCap According to the well-followed analyst, Gordon, we’re now in the second phase of the Altseason cycle. Eventually, true Altseason kicks in when money starts flowing into mid- and low-cap coins, even the ones with weak fundamentals, with the large-cap tokens still managing to outshine both BTC and ETH. Trader Michaël van de Poppe also shared that the altcoin market cap, excluding BTC and ETH, has climbed to around $925 billion. He believes the market may go through a short consolidation phase before kicking off a new Altseason. Interestingly, one market watcher thinks the next big Altseason might actually begin tomorrow, May 15. He’s basing this on past cycles, pointing out that major altcoin rallies happened around this same date in 2017 and 2021, both four years apart. According to his chart, altcoin traders could witness a similar rally this time, with the total altcoin market cap potentially climbing as much as 225% from current levels. The post Bitcoin holds $103K support as altcoins await breakout cues, RAY leads daily gains appeared first on Invezz
