With ongoing interest in cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) , Polymarket—a well-known decentralized prediction market platform—has now weighed in with some fresh, highly sought-after insights. These focus on the probabilities placed by the Polymarket platform on recent applications for spot ETFs tied to some of the most recognizable altcoins being approved by regulators. According to Polymarket, of the six major altcoins nominated for spot ETF approval, five have probabilities exceeding 68%. This translates to strong market optimism that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will give the go-ahead sometime in the next year. This list includes top projects which are such as XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Litecoin (LTC) which is each capturing significant investor interest and signaling the increasing appeal of the altcoins which are beyond Bitcoin and towards the mainstream. Meanwhile, Pepe (PEPE), which is a newer token and much less established, trails very far behind with only a 9% chance of ETF approval, which really underscores a divide that participants in the market see between established projects and speculative newcomers. XRP Leads the Pack with an 83% Approval Probability Among the top contenders, XRP currently enjoys the highest odds of securing a spot ETF approval in 2025, with its chances weighing in at a commanding 83%. This strong optimism simply reflects the ongoing favorable development that Ripple’s regulatory environment is undergoing, which in turn largely hinges on the protracted federal legal entanglement that the firm finds itself in. That also affects the XRP price. XRP’s leadership position on Polymarket likely shows confidence among investors that the cryptocurrency’s long-standing legal wrangling with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is headed for a favorable resolution, one that would allow the kind of regulatory sign-off that would make an ETF possible. And the XRP community and its investors have a close watch on these developments because, if nothing else, an ETF approval would be a massive milestone in making XRP a legitimate investment vehicle. Solana maintains a strong position in the realm of prediction markets, with a probability of around 80% that it will be approved. This remarkably steady outlook suggests that market participants are not only optimistic but also increasingly confident about Solana’s expansion; its ever-maturing ecosystem, network scalability, and very much seemingly real increasing adoption make it feel ETF inclusion is definitely within reach. Growing Momentum for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin Data from Polymarket also shows that Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have experienced substantial increases in the likelihood of ETF approval over the last few months. When the initial Altcoin ETF predictions were released, all three of these altcoins were projected to have probabilities well below the 50% mark. However, in the time since, all odds have improved by considerable margins, with each altcoin now projected to have an approximately 70%-80% chance of being approved for an ETF. Polymarket Odds for Spot ETF Approval on Major Altcoins According to @Polymarket , 5 out of 6 major altcoins nominated for ETF approval — $XRP , $SOL , $DOGE , $ADA , and $LTC — each have over a 68% chance of receiving spot ETF approval in 2025. $XRP currently leads with an 83%… pic.twitter.com/Lg7yJfub4c — CryptoRank.io (@CryptoRank_io) May 28, 2025 This upward trend reflects an altering set of regulations and a coming-of-age for these projects. Cardano, with its ever-evolving smart contract capabilities, strikes me as an ecosystem that might consider itself next-gen. I don’t know if it’s Dogecoin’s 5 million-plus holders, or the ears it has to the ground in the way of endorsements, that give it a fighting chance in this world of vogue and trust. In my eyes, Litecoin remains near the top of the totem pole of trust, in large part because of its consistent steady upward path. The continued increase in the probabilities of approval for these altcoin ETFs suggests that there is a growing belief that the regulatory agencies might soon start allowing a wider array of investment products based on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Pepe Coin Trails Far Behind Amid Speculation In contrast, Pepe (PEPE), even with the recent buzz and popularity it’s enjoyed in certain crypto communities, stands a very low chance—just 9%—of achieving spot ETF approval next year. This pretty much illustrates how the market views newer, speculative tokens that grab quick hype but seem to lack the necessary institutional infrastructure, regulatory clarity, or widespread adoption to appeal to the kinds of regulators that sign off on these things. How investors and the market are differentiating between: 1. Blue-chip altcoins having established use cases, and 2. Speculative “meme” coins that face greater hurdles on the road to regulatory acceptance. PEPE’s low odds are a potential indicator of this differentiation. What This Means for Crypto Investors and Markets Polymarket gives us a rare peek into how people are pricing the regulatory risk and opportunity landscape for major altcoins in 2025. That is, it lets us see in real-time how market participants are potentially calibrating that risk and opportunity landscape. And what it’s showing us, for the most part, is a scene of relative calm—at least over the near term. Altcoins such as Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin are now seen as far more likely to gain regulatory blessings than they were just a few months ago. This is part of a much bigger trend in the crypto space in which many coins and tokens are now seen as far more likely to be deemed legally permissible because they are distinct from securities. This trend could, by extension, make those coins and tokens more permissible as parts of legal businesses, too. Monitoring these changing probabilities is valuable for investors. It provides insight into the sentiment of the market and the regulatory environment, which helps investors navigate risk and identify potential catalysts for price movement. The saga of trying to get spot ETFs approved is one of the crypto industry’s best storylines right now. And based on data from the prediction market Polymarket, it seems that the appearance of regulatory breakthroughs on that front for the top altcoins is looking more and more likely—at least in the relatively near future. Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services. Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news !
