Summary MicroStrategy remains a high-risk, high-reward play due to the company's aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy and heavy reliance on BTC price appreciation. Scenario analysis shows potential 2030 NAVs of $400+ billion (Bull), $159 billion (Base), and $30 billion (Bear), driven by projected BTC holdings and prices. While I previously criticized MSTR's premium to NAV, I now acknowledge that its leveraged Bitcoin strategy could be value accretive if BTC performs strongly. MicroStrategy is leading a trend among public companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies. In the final days of 2024, I wrote an article about MicroStrategy (MSTR), arguing that MicroStrategy's stock is highly risky due to the company's heavy reliance on Bitcoin, which could expose shareholders to extreme volatility and regulatory uncertainties. I also pointed out that, at the time, MSTR stock was trading at $87.2 billion market cap, vs. an estimated fair value of its Bitcoin holdings of approximately $43.5 billion, reflecting a significant valuation premium to book value. Although I continue to believe that MicroStrategy stock is risky, I soften my stance on the relative value argument: Despite the stock's premium to NAV, there could be a scenario where Bitcoin treasury strategy is value accretive for shareholders. In fact, according to a scenario analysis using different Bitcoin price assumptions by 2030, MSTR's NAV could be worth $400+ billion, $160 billion and $30 billion, in the Bull, Base, and Bear case, respectively. Key Assumptions For My Scenario Analysis My valuation analysis of MicroStrategy in 2030 is based on different Bitcoin price scenarios, assuming no premium is applied. This means the company's market cap would be equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings minus its debt, with no extra value added for speculation or leverage. In other words, I'm using a 1x multiplier: just the net value of Bitcoin, nothing more. Further, I assume MSTR's software business contribution is negligibly due to limited operating earnings. Below my key assumptions: As of May 2025, MicroStrategy holds 576,230 BTC. We assume it acquires an additional 10% annually (57,623 BTC/year) through debt and equity raises, reaching ~864,345 BTC by 2030. This is consistent with its $42 billion capital raise plan over three years. MSTR's current financial debt is around $9 billion (1.1x leverage ratio). I assume debt grows to $13.5 billion by 2030, maintaining a similar leverage ratio. For simplicity, I assume that interest costs are covered by software earnings, or BTC earnings (e.g., call option overwrite strategy). The premium multiplier I set to 0. Investors should interpret this as 1x (market cap = net asset value of Bitcoin holdings minus debt). As I said, the software business' contribution remains negligible, as operating earnings are not material to the company's market cap. I assume the tax and regulatory environment to be stable, with no significant tax liabilities or regulatory bans impacting Bitcoin holdings. Lastly, I assume the following Bitcoin price scenarios for 2030 Bull Case : Bitcoin reaches $500,000 (~40% annualized growth from $103,000 in May 2025). Base Case : Bitcoin reaches $200,000 (~15% annualized growth). Bear Case : Bitcoin falls to $50,000 (~13% annualized decline). Author's estimates, calculations MSTR Could Be Worth $400+ Billion By 2030 ... On the backdrop of the above assumptions, I calculate MicroStrategy's fair implied NAV value by 2030 at around $400+ billion, $159 billion and $30 billion, for the Bull, Base and Bear case, respectively ( Formula : Market Cap = (BTC Holdings × Bitcoin Price) − Debt). Author's estimates, calculations ... Potentially Even Higher As I said, I have not used a premium multiplier to the 2030 NAV. But there could be an argument for using a multiplier because MSTR's Bitcoin treasury strategy creates a leveraged, reflexive growth mechanism that amplifies shareholder value beyond the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. The multiplier reflects investor enthusiasm for MicroStrategy as a high-beta Bitcoin proxy, where rising BTC prices drive stock price gains, enabling further debt and equity-financed Bitcoin purchase. For context, (the multiplier trended around ~2x through the first half of 2025. But for the multiplier to hold, Bitcoin must maintain long-term price growth and the company must manage its debt strategy liquidity issues, ensuring the strategy's accretive potential outweighs risks like volatility or regulatory hurdles. MicroStrategy Is Leading A Trend One key reason that got me to reconsider MSTR's value is based on the observation of how popular the Bitcoin treasury strategy has been in the recent past, helping companies to raise billions worth of capital. Indeed, several companies have adopted similar approaches as MSTR to boost shareholder value by holding Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset, leveraging debt and equity to fund purchases: Metaplanet, a Japanese firm, holds about 4,200 BTC and has seen its stock surge over 2,200% since April 2024, using zero-interest bonds to mirror MicroStrategy’s playbook. Semler Scientific, a U.S. healthcare company, owns 3,200 BTC, funded by convertible bonds. The company's stock has doubled since May 2024. MARA Holdings, a Bitcoin miner, holds about 48,000 BTC ($3.9 billion) and raised $1.1 billion in convertible debt. Rumble, a free-speech video platform, allocated $20 million to Bitcoin, holding 188 BTC, while KULR Technology Group acquired 510 BTC ($51 million) with 90% of its surplus cash. Most recently, the Financial Times reported on plans from Donald Trump's Media company, DJT, to raise $3 billion of debt for Bitcoin investment. Shares have been up as much as 10% in pre-market trading following the rumors. Investor Takeaway While MicroStrategy's Bitcoin treasury strategy continues to be inherently risky, due to the cryptocurrencies' volatility, I am softening my stance on whether MSTR can generate shareholder value. According to my scenario analysis, by 2030, MSTR could achieve potential net asset values of $400+ billion, $159.37 billion, and $29.72 billion in Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios, respectively (analysis driven by projected 864,345 BTC holdings and Bitcoin's price trajectory). All things considered, I view MSTR is a high-risk, high-reward play for investors seeking leveraged exposure to Bitcoin's potential.
