Bitcoin bulls held the line at a key support level this week, resulting in sideways price action as markets digested a flurry of macro developments. Despite Bitcoin’s stability, the broader crypto market slipped over 2% to $3.37 trillion by Friday. Most of the losses were concentrated in Bitcoin, while the altcoin sector defied the downtrend, climbing approximately 3.2% in total market value. Sentiment gradually weakened through the week, barring a brief midweek uptick. By Friday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had slipped to 48, hovering at the lower end of neutral territory as traders remained cautious of volatility. Why is Bitcoin stuck? Bitcoin remained confined within a narrow range between $103,645 and $108,771 this week, as mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures kept traders on the sidelines. Early week tension between Iran and Israel dampened risk appetite, limiting price action despite occasional intraday rallies. By Friday, BTC had edged up 1.1% to $106,081, but this modest gain followed three days of stagnation between $104,000 and $105,000. The Juneteenth holiday pause in U.S. markets further contributed to the lack of momentum, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dipping roughly 0.3% ahead of the reopening. A key overhang remains the escalation risk in the Middle East. Although President Trump’s two-week deadline before making a military decision against Iran has temporarily eased fears of immediate escalation, the geopolitical backdrop continues to inject uncertainty into markets. According to Exness strategist Christopher Tahir, traders may remain risk-averse until clarity emerges on both the geopolitical and monetary policy fronts. Adding to this is the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, a move largely priced in by markets. However, the revised dot plot, with just four cuts in total over the next three years , down from six in previous forecasts, carried a hawkish undertone that could continue to dampen risk appetite in the near term. On-chain data is also showing signs of buyer exhaustion. According to CryptoQuant, short-term Bitcoin holders, those who entered the market in recent months, have reduced their holdings by roughly 800,000 BTC since late May, a drop of 15.1%. CryptoQuant’s demand momentum indicator, which tracks changes in held balances across participant cohorts, has dropped by 2 million BTC, marking its lowest recorded level. Net spot inflows remain positive but have slowed considerably, with just 118,000 BTC added over the past 30 days compared to 228,000 BTC in May. Both are signs that the market lacks retail participation. Whale accumulation rates have also declined, falling to 1.7% per month from 3.9% previously. Activity in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has moderated, with daily net inflows dropping from 9,700 BTC in April to around 3,300 BTC. Combined, this tapering from both retail and institutional segments suggests that the recent equilibrium in Bitcoin’s price is less about strength and more about the absence of directional conviction. Will Bitcoin go back up? Volatility remained elevated heading into the weekend, driven in part by the expiry of $6.8 trillion worth of options tied to stock indexes, ETFs, futures, and individual equities across traditional markets. According to The Kobeissi Letter and SpotGamma, this is potentially the largest triple witching OpEx event ever recorded, and the first such post-holiday expiry in over two decades. Traders had widely anticipated heightened volatility, and Bitcoin’s sudden move late Friday appeared to reflect this build-up. Expectations heading into the session were sharply divided. A poll by analyst Matthew Hyland showed market sentiment nearly split, with 50.2% predicting a drop to $94,000, and 49.8% expecting a rally to $114,000. That divergence reflected broader uncertainty, as Bitcoin briefly surged to $106,500 before reversing course sharply. The brief upside rally cleared out nearby short positions, but the subsequent sell-off triggered a long liquidation cascade, confirming the fragility of leverage-driven rallies in the current environment. Coinglass’s 24-hour liquidation heatmap captured this move in real time. The surge through $106,000 swept through multiple clusters of ask-side liquidity, followed by a steep rejection that liquidated longs stacked between $105,000 and $106,500. Binance BTC/USDT 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass. BTC is now consolidating between liquidity-rich zones, with $105,000 and $102,000 acting as short-term magnet levels that could draw price action depending on broader flows. One of the more optimistic voices in the market is Ted Pillows, who recently outlined a Wyckoff accumulation setup developing on Bitcoin’s daily chart. “A breakout above $110,000,” he wrote, “and BTC will rally towards $130K in no time.” BTC/USDC 1-day chart. Source: Ted Pillows According to his chart, Bitcoin has progressed through the latter stages of the Wyckoff cycle, forming a Sign of Strength (SOS) and consolidating around what he labels the Last Point of Support (LPS). A move above resistance would confirm entry into the markup phase, where bullish momentum typically accelerates. Another relatively optimistic outlook comes from market commentator Coinvo, who focuses on Bitcoin’s macro structure. Their analysis tied current price action to long-term trendlines stretching back to 2017 and 2021, suggesting that BTC remains within its historical logarithmic growth channel. Coinvo @ByCoinvo · Follow If everything goes according to plan, $BTC could go to $290,000 by the end of 2025! 👀 10:30 PM · Jun 19, 2025 647 Reply Copy link Read 43 replies Even so, not all analysts are convinced the worst is behind. Justin Bennett offered a more cautious read of recent price action, arguing that the rejection near $106,000 may have trapped late buyers. He warned that a break below local trendline support could drag BTC toward the $101,000 to $99,000 region. Some analysts were watching key technical indicators for signs of weakness. Ether Wizz, for instance, flagged the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a critical level. Since May, this moving average has served as a reliable support zone. BTC/USDT 1-day trading chart. Source: Ether Wizz While bulls managed to defend it again this week, a decisive break below could accelerate a correction toward $98,000. Still, with geopolitical tensions cooling and macro conditions showing early signs of stabilisation, the environment may begin shifting back in favour of risk assets. For Bitcoin, that could mean another attempt to reclaim higher ground, provided buyers step in with conviction. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had erased all of its weekly gains and was trading at $104,216, marking a modest 1.2% loss over the past seven days during late Asian trading hours on June 20. Altcoin market Over the past week, the altcoin market saw a burst of momentum early on, with total market capitalisation climbing 7.2% to reach $1.34 trillion by June 17. However, the rally lost steam in the days that followed, with the market cooling to $1.29 trillion and closing the week with a net gain of 3.2%. Despite the positive headline figure, broader altcoin performance showed signs of fading strength. The Altcoin Season Index dropped to 20 at press time, suggesting that most of the top 100 altcoins are now underperforming relative to Bitcoin. Ethereum, the largest altcoin by market cap, fell 2.2% over the past week as its price fell below $2,500 while its market cap was set at a little above $300 billion. Other large-cap altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) experienced steeper losses of 2.6%, 6.2%, 8.4%, and 13.7%, respectively, while Tron (TRX) managed to see slight gains in the period. Aerodrome Finance (AERO) stood as the leading gainer of the week, holding on to gains of 32.3% while Kaia (KAIA) and Sei (SEI) posted gains of 22.4% and 17.9% respectively. Source: CoinMarketCap. AERO’s price gains came after Coinbase announced the integration of Base-based DEXs into its main app, potentially exposing Aerodrome to over 10.8 million monthly users and boosting its trading volume and revenue. The token also gained from JPMorgan’s launch of its JPMD deposit token on Base, a move that is accelerating institutional flows into the Base DeFi ecosystem and could drive higher TVL and trading flows to Aerodrome, which currently ranks among the largest liquidity hubs on the network. Kaia’s rally this week was driven by a number of bullish developments. First, USDT, the world’s largest stablecoin by market cap, was launched on the Kaia network this week. Second, Kaia announced plans to launch a Korean won-backed stablecoin in a bid to support South Korea’s push to establish a solid stablecoin economy to counter offshore alternatives. Kaia also became the first Layer‑1 blockchain to onboard the Japan Blockchain Association this week, which added to bullish momentum. As for Sei (SEI), the token gains followed the announcement that the Wyoming Stable Token Commission selected it as one of two candidate blockchains for the state-backed WYST stablecoin. Most decentralised applications on Sei, including Yei Finance and Takara Lend, have also recorded increased adoption in recent weeks. The post Analysts split on Bitcoin as altcoins AERO and KAIA outperform broader market appeared first on Invezz
