Summary Downgrading IBIT from buy to hold due to stalled momentum and lack of breakout above May highs, despite strong year-to-date returns. Bitcoin's price action is mixed versus gold and equities, with recent consolidation and divergence from traditional risk assets raising caution. Potential downside support levels are near $98,000, with risk-off catalysts like geopolitical tensions or weak economic data threatening further declines. Corporate and retail buying provide a floor, but I remain neutral until a breakout above $112,000 or a retest of key support levels occurs. Like so many asset classes and industry groups, the mantra is “wait and see” in the crypto space. Bitcoin holds below its May all-time high near $112,000 heading into the second half, and I am downgrading the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) from a buy to a hold. I was bullish on the world’s largest cryptocurrency back in March , following the steep selloff that ensued after the January peak around President Trump’s inauguration. Up a fast 24% in just a few months since my sanguine call, I am concerned about IBIT’s momentum. Let’s roll through the key crypto charts and tables that may offer clues about where bitcoin may go in the months ahead. Bitcoin Hovers Below Its May All-Time High Seeking Alpha According to the issuer , IBIT aims to generally track the performance of the bitcoin price. The ETF now houses more than $70 billion in assets under management, and it enables investors to get exposure to bitcoin through the convenience of an exchange-traded product, helping remove the operational, tax, and custody complexities of holding bitcoin directly. First, it’s important to point out that bitcoin, along with gold and ex-US stocks, have offered some of the best total returns so far this year. So, absolute momentum is not bad when zooming out. But the ultimate breakout IBIT bulls had hoped for in May has not come to pass. YTD Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Returns: Bitcoin Strong Goldman Sachs In the past few years, we’ve seen bitcoin buck gold trends. For instance, when gold rallies, bitcoin has generally consolidated or even drifted lower; when gold trades sideways, that’s usually when we see IBIT thrust higher. Since gold notched a record high close to $3,500 per ounce two months ago, bitcoin has not enjoyed the same kind of buying pressure as seen in previous cycles. That’s a yellow flag for me. Of course, IBIT is up 11% so far in 2025, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) by more than eight percentage points. The bitcoin ETF remains significantly below gold’s impressive 28% YTD advance, however. So, the relative strength situation is mixed, depending on if you compare bitcoin to the S&P 500 or the precious metal. Gold Leading Bitcoin YTD, Both Beating the SPX StockCharts.com On an absolute price trend basis, bitcoin has chopped around for more than a month now, and amid geopolitical turmoil and a sagging US Dollar Index (DXY), I’d have liked to have seen better price action with IBIT. Moreover, the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) has been in rally mode, for the most part, since early May. Often, with the Qs ascend, IBIT follows suit. Once again, we’re not seeing that today—another caution sign, in my view. BTCUSD Consolidating From $101,000 to $112,000 Trading Economics Where might we see buyers step up to the plate with bitcoin? I assert now is the ideal time to apply Fibonacci retracement lines to help identify future support spots. Notice in the chart below that if we plot the Fibos from the $74,400 post-Liberation Day low to the May 22 all-time high, we see that the 38.2% retracement comes into play just below the $98,000 level. I could see that playing out—a bearish breakdown below the June low of $100,000 and change could shake loose the weak hands, setting the stage for a swift move below $100k, and a fast rally thereafter. Another scenario—a more bearish one—takes bitcoin toward its March rebound high in the upper $80,000s. That’s the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Q2 rally. What might cause that? Well, if we see risk-off price action across asset classes in the weeks ahead, perhaps driven by an escalation in the Middle East geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran, or a President Trump ratcheting up tariffs with the July 9 reciprocal tariff relief deadline coming closer into view, then there would probably be selling pressure on IBIT. Another bearish catalyst may simply be deteriorating economic data. The labor market is clearly softening, while the Federal Reserve is hesitant to cut rates—that sets up for a rocky start to the third quarter, potentially. Bitcoin Technicals: Eyeing a $98,000 Downside Target, Equivalent to $55.70 on IBIT StockCharts.com Despite the possible headwinds, we continue to see a steady diet of corporations buying up bitcoin. In late May, GameStop ( GME ) was the latest firm to announce it was adding to its bitcoin reserve. Retail investors also bought the bitcoin dip in April, per EPFR flow of funds data. Corporate Bitcoin Buying Acts as a Possible Floor Seeking Alpha Strong April Bitcoin Inflows, A "Buy-the-Dip" Mentality BofA Global Research Furthermore, I remain generally upbeat about the stock market , underpinned by resilient corporate earnings and investor skepticism. That backdrop should support bitcoin as a risk-on asset for now. I would become more bullish on IBIT if it were to probe that $98,000 spot, or upon a breakout above the record high of $112,000. For now, a measured stance is warranted on bitcoin as it keeps on coiling. Looking ahead, prediction markets point to bitcoin perhaps reaching above $130,000 by the end of the year. In the short term, seasonal data points to tailwinds lasting through July. Prediction Markets Point to $136k Bitcoin By Year-End (Max Price) Kalshi Bitcoin Seasonality: Bullish July Trends, Bearish August-September Barchart The Bottom Line I have a hold rating on IBIT. I was bullish on bitcoin toward the end of the first quarter, and after a white-knuckle period around and just after Liberation Day, crypto buying ensued. But with month-long consolidation and softer momentum trends, a wait-and-see approach is justified.
