Summary From a momentum standpoint, things feel like they’re losing steam. From a trade location standpoint, this is classic high-risk territory. There are a few clear scenarios in play. First is the bearish reversal from resistance. Candlestick Pattern Analysis Bitcoin’s ( BTC-USD ) been grinding sideways near the top of its recent move, and the price action is starting to look a little tired. The last few daily candles? Small bodies, upper wicks — classic spinning tops and borderline dojis. That’s the market flashing indecision, maybe even burnout after the June rally. That surge, by the way, came with a bullish engulfing pattern that looked strong at first, but the follow-through didn’t have much gas behind it. Volume started fading right after the breakout, which often means traders are either cashing out into strength or just not that convinced. Trend Health And Momentum From a momentum standpoint, things feel like they’re losing steam. The MACD histogram has gone flat around the zero line - a signal that neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand. The MACD lines are trying to cross upward, but the move lacks urgency. RSI is hanging around 51, which is as neutral as it gets. We were in overbought territory not too long ago, but that’s cooled off. And volume? Lower on the most recent push. That doesn’t scream FOMO - it feels more like cautious interest, the kind of slow accumulation you’d expect from funds, not Reddit traders. Box Analysis Looking at it through a Box lens, Bitcoin broke out of its $75K–$88K range in April with solid conviction. Since then, it’s been carving out a new box between about $100.5K and $110.5K. Right now, it’s hovering near the top of that range but hasn’t made a clean break. No spike in volume either, which makes the breakout case a bit shaky. A strong move above $110.5K, backed by volume and a firm close, could change that fast - but we’re not there yet. The Fibonacci levels - based on the swing low near $59K and the recent peak around $110.5K - give us a clearer roadmap if we pull back. First key supports show up around $98.9K (23.6%), $91.5K (38.2%), and deeper at $84.7K (50%). On the flip side, if we get a breakout and hold above $110.5K, the next targets fall around $125K, $144K, and even up near $166K. The current market setup is sitting right at the upper edge of a box, with price hovering between $100.5K and $110.5K. It’s a spot where things tend to get tricky - candles are showing signs of indecision, and we’re seeing weak follow-through on moves higher. Volume is thinning out as price nudges resistance, and momentum indicators like MACD and RSI are offering little help, both drifting in neutral-to-weak territory. So far, there’s been no confirmed breakout to the upside, but also no convincing breakdown - just a lot of waiting and watching. Momentum Interpretation and Scenarios Ahead From a trade location standpoint, this is classic high-risk territory. There’s no edge in jumping in aggressively on either side just yet. We’re sitting at a decision point, where the next big move will likely come from a trap or a clean breakout - and right now, neither has confirmed. Patience is the best position. There are a few clear scenarios in play. First is the bearish reversal from resistance. This would show up through a bearish engulfing candle, a dark cloud cover, or an evening star formation - ideally paired with a breakdown below ~$105K on heavy volume. If that happens, the play would be to short the rejection near $110.5K, placing a stop just above the wick highs (around $111.5K), and targeting moves back down to $100.5K, then $98.9K (the 23.6% Fib), and potentially $91.5K (38.2% Fib). The thesis here: price fakes a breakout, buyers get trapped, and bears take control as volume dries up at the highs. Scenario two is the real breakout - the kind that smart money usually drives. You’d want to see a strong bullish candle close above $110.5K, ideally on a volume spike. A bullish Marubozu or solid follow-through after a smaller range candle would also fit the bill. If that’s the case, buying the breakout makes sense, with stops just below the breakout candle or around $107.5K (a former resistance level turned support). Targets would then stretch toward $125.1K (127.2% Fib extension) and potentially $144K (161.8%). This setup says: the box has broken with conviction — time to ride the next wave up. Then there’s the trap — the false breakout scenario. Here, price briefly pushes above $110.5K but quickly reverses, closing back inside the box. You’d likely see a long upper wick and a small candle body — a classic bull trap with no real volume behind it. If price drops back below $110.5K (ideally under $109K), that’s your signal. The trade would be to short the failure, with a stop above the wick high (~$112K), and targets back to $100.5K and potentially $91.5K. The idea: smart money sold into the breakout, and now late buyers are left holding the bag. As for the current best read? This still feels like a “wait for confirmation” environment. The most likely near-term outcome is a range trap unless we see a breakout backed by real volume and structure. If you’re on the sidelines, stay patient - either a clean reversal or a true breakout will offer a better entry. Disclaimer: LONG BTC. This text expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice. The author has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein. Further, wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss. Additionally, the present article is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose. The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as an offering of advisory services or an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Some information and data contained herein concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. The author trusts that the sources from which such information has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
